My personal and academic background mean I have a particular interest in the intersection between Brexit and Good Friday Agreement so I listened to #Marr exchanges with Edwin Poots & @MarosSefcovic with some interest. Some reflections (thread)
From the beginning it was obvious that if UK left Customs Union/ Single Market there had to be a border in Irish Sea or on island of Ireland. Good Friday Agreement ruled out latter ... unless ...
... as many English Brexiteers explained to me, Ireland would "see sense" and rejoin UK (recall, this was 2016 and as I pointed out Ireland was celebrating 100 years since Easter Rising and EU was more popular than ever, but then what do I know?)
As Poots kept complaining about difficulty getting food, medicines, etc. it never seemed to occur to him that he has access to a single market of ~ 470 million, who make everything he can possibly need
And now much easier to access them as Ireland - France/ Netherlands etc, ferries proliferating euronews.com/2021/01/01/ire…
But at least 80% of NI-GB checks could be removed if UK accepted a Swiss style veterinary agreement - it won't as it insists on the right to relax standards (despite opposition by 80% of UK public) vettimes.co.uk/news/80-of-pub…
Important to recall that much of this would have been avoided by Theresa May's backstop, but DUP & Johnson's supporters opposed it. Did they ever understand alternative? In fact, did they ever understand the EU?
And progress could be made if:
a) UK kept its promises
b) UK made serious proposals
c) UK tried to build trust (not least by stopping ill treatment of EU citizens) theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
However, growing evidence that my compatriots in NI increasingly disillusioned with DUP - now on 16% support. Signs of a political realignment but wouldn't it be nice if more would vote on policies, not on battles fought 400 years ago (I can but dream)
And finally, a word of thanks to @MarosSefcovic - like @MichelBarnier he has the patience of a saint. And unlike the DUP and UK government, he really seems to have the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland at heart. /End
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Much talk on @BBCWorldatOne about "acceptable level of COVID deaths". Can someone explain how you maintain a level of anything when it changes exponentially and you are always dealing with data (on becoming infected) ~10 days out of date? Do we need Mk 1 crystal ball?
And please don't use comparison with tolerance of deaths on roads. They don't change exponentially. With COVID, if rates are not going down they are going up. And if they keep going up (R>1) they soon get very high