3/ This is why the UK has reduced the interval between 1st and 2nd doses from 12 weeks to 8 weeks for persons over 50 and others at high-risk for severe disease: reuters.com/world/uk/engla…
4/ The UK may be entering 3rd wave of COVID: theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
Is this because of the B.1.617.2 India variant?
Vaccination rates:
- UK: 38% fully vaxx'ed, 59% 1st dose
- USA: 51% fully vaxx'ed, 41% 1st dose
Will UK dose delay strategy turn out to be the right one?
5/ For those of you asking about J&J vs B.1.617.2, I haven't yet seen data on that.
There is data for the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is an adenovirus vector vaccine like the J&J vaccine and is being used in India and the UK. The AZ vaccine is a 2-dose vaccine while J&J is 1-dose.
B.1.1.7 UK variant
- 1 dose of AZ 51% effective vs symptomatic COVID
- 2 doses 66% effective
B.1617.2 India variant
- 1 dose of AZ 33% effective vs symptomatic COVID
- 2 doses 60% effective
7/ In contrast to Pfizer & Moderna vaccines, the J&J vaccine was the only one "stress-tested" vs variants in Phase III clinical trials.
It's one of the reasons it looked "less good."
J&J was tested vs P.1 variant in Latin America & B.1.351 variant in South Africa.
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1/ Vaccinated people are protected.
BUT UN-vaccinated people are NOT protected.
Take for instance Washington state. COVID case rate among unvaccinated people is as HIGH as it was in LATE JANUARY, near the PEAK of SARS-CoV-2 infections:
2/ The COVID case rate,
hospitalization rate,
and death rate
for UNvaccinated persons
are similar to what they were on December 31, 2020. washingtonpost.com/health/interac…
3/ COVID is concentrating in COC in part due to lower vaxx rates.
- Before we had COVID vaccines: 1/3 of new cases were among POC in MD/DC
- Now that we have COVID vaccines: 1/2 of new COVID cases in MD and >80% of COVID cases in DC are among POC
1/ Agree with @ScottGottliebMD: "I'm not sure we're ever going to have a definitive grasp on the answer to that question" -- did the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic originate from zoonotic spillovers or from a lab accident? overcast.fm/+MLB_ELKGQ/25:…
2/ "...unless we find the intermediate host where the virus originated from, the animal host..." -@ScottGottliebMD
It took decades for us to figure out that HIV is a hybrid of SIVs naturally infecting the red-capped mangabey and the greater spot-nosed monkey.
3/ "or unless we have something that definitively demonstrates that this came out of a lab — a whistleblower, access to information that hadn't been available previously..." -@ScottGottliebMD
I don't think we'll ever get full access to Wuhan Institute of Virology records/staff.
1/ @SurgoVentures keeps doing great work on vaccine confidence and behavioral science. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
They break unvaccinated people into 4 psychobehavioral archetypes: the Watchful, the Cost-Anxious, the System Distrusters, and the Covid Skeptics.
2/ How to reach folks and encourage them to get vaccinated depends on how they think about COVID and vaccination.
3/ Here's a map of COVID Skeptics:
- Almost everyone in this group believes at least one conspiracy theory about COVID.
- Where the pink goes far outside the square, there's a lot of skepticism.
- Where the pink remains inside the square, there's a lot less skepticism.
1/ CDC's new mask guidance:
Fully vaxx’d do not need to mask.
EXCEPTIONS:
- Healthcare and long-term care facilities
- Travel by bus, plane, train, public transportation
- Transportation hubs
- Prisons, jails, homeless shelter
- If you have symptoms? Mask & test.
Some thoughts…
2/ The science shows that:
- VACCINATED people are PROTECTED
- UNVACCINATED people are at RISK
Cases are down by 1/3 in the last 2 weeks.
The risk of vaxx’d persons transmitting to others is very low.
HOWEVER...