Lots of talk about the demographic and travel behaviour differences to account for ‘why Victoria’ concerning COVID. Let’s unpack this…with data. #auspol
Experts and politicians have responded to the question on many people’s minds: why Victoria? Why does Vic appear to be struggling with COVID outbreaks, while NSW isn’t? Recent commentary has suggested transport, age, jobs, migrant population etc as among the reasons.
When considering virus outbreaks, population characteristics and behaviours are crucial. The data doesn’t support the suggestions that population and behaviour differ - Vic and NSW aren’t all that different. In fact, the data point to NSW being at greater ‘risk’.
Virus outbreaks can be purely luck or chance, ie. random. But there’s more to the ‘why Victoria’ question, like the support structures in place.
Is Victoria younger than New South Wales? No, median age and age distribution among the working age population (most socially interactive) aren’t all the different. abs.gov.au/statistics/peo… 
Are there more migrants in Victoria versus New South Wales? No, the proportion of the population born overseas is similar in NSW to that in Vic. abs.gov.au/statistics/peo…
Is Melbourne more densely populated than Sydney? No, ‘Sydney had the largest combined area in the high and very high density classes (193 km²), followed by Melbourne (77 km²).’ [Syd vs Melb maps] abs.gov.au/statistics/peo…
Do people in Melbourne use active transport (public + bike + walk) more than those living in Sydney? No, Sydneysiders have the highest rate of active transport use in the country. abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.…
People in Victoria live in more crowded situations than in New South Wales. No, severe overcrowding appears to be a bigger problem in New South Wales. abs.gov.au/statistics/peo…
Do people in Victoria travel longer distances than those living in New South Wales? No, average commute distances are similar for Vic and NSW. abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.…
Do people in Melbourne travel around more than those in Sydney? No, the data doesn't support that based on travel to work information. [Syd vs Melb mapping of net flows of journeys to work] abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.…
This thread was made possible thanks to the data and nerds from the @ABSStats
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