Thread by @BestForBritain

This week, @pmdfoster scooped the story that Brexit shrank UK exports of services by £110bn in 2016-19 (i.e. excluding the Covid impact). But the most disturbing part of this? 1/
ft.com/content/20a626…

...Is a quote from Aston University’s Professor Jun Du (@jundu1mecom), whose team is behind the research. Buried down in the FT story, she says…2/

…that financial services exports were hardest hit, as banks, insurers and asset managers moved thousands of people and billions in capital from London to Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam & Dublin. But Covid was, in a way, kind. How? 3/

Well, the pandemic made it far harder to move business and individuals, slowing the relocation process. That’s the ‘good’ news for Britain. 4/

The bad news is that the relocation process will now gather speed, according to @jundu1mecom, as businesses ‘see that there is not much going on in UK-EU negotiations’.

Ominously, she says: ‘I think this is only the beginning.’ 5/

It’s not just financial services that face a hit - look at travel, transport & IT.

And here's your regular reminder that our services sector is exceptionally important – in 2019 the UK ran an £18bn surplus in services trade with the EU, against a deficit of £97bn in goods. 6/

In other cheery forecast news, the OECD says both the EU & UK will take 3 years to get back to pre-pandemic economic levels. So that’s 3 years to get back to that awkward position where we’ve lost £110bn in services exports. 7/ euronews.com/2021/05/31/oec…

Britain’s deal with the EU has a paucity of provisions around financial & professional services, so there is an awful lot of work to be done here.

Because, while we're trying to get back to that awkward position, everyone else will be filling their boots at our expense. /ENDS