Between this chart and repeated raised analyst revenue estimates for 2021 (beat and raise cadence) trying to catch up to the company, the 'overvalued' argument falls flat, and it does so by a lot. cmlviz.com/stocks/FTCH/fi…
/5
Now that we have seen financials, we can also see how analysts have been behind the curve.
$ROKU
This chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.
This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021
/6
Now that we have seen financials ☝️, we can also see...
$FSLY
This chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.
This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021
Guidance is now $390M.
/7
Now that we have seen financials ☝️, we can also see...
$PINS
This chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.
This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021
Note incorrect COVID impacted estimates.
/8
Now that we have seen financials ☝️ we can also see...
$PD
Chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.
This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021
Note, again, incorrect COVID impacted estimates.
/9
Perspective:
Price in short-term does not (necessarily) reflect business in long-term.
$ROKU $FSLY $PINS $PD $FTCH
(Do this with any of your holdings)
"What you see and what you are told are not necessarily the same thing."
Stock reaction is down due to full year GMV guidance ($4.71B) coming in a bit soft versus consensus ($4.73B) but as we discuss below, that guidance feels quite comfortably conservate and barring an economic collapse, we see GLBE outperforming.
A (short) thread
1/🧵
That $4.71B GMV guidance (at the midpoint) feels quite achievable if not conservative.
The number implies 32.4% YoY growth off of 2023 which saw 45% growth, but we can disentangle that further.
2/
It was uncovered in the analyst Q&A portion of the earnings call that $200M – $300M of new GMV in 2024 will come from a conservate view of the Shopify Markets Pro rollout which started in September of 2023.
3/
Wholesale Inflation Falls Again; #Disinflation Station
A thread
1/
The Producer Price Index (PPI), as opposed to Consumer Price Index (CPI) that we received yesterday, came in below estimates both for headline and core.
In fact, overall PPI MoM has come in negative for two consecutive quarters - that’s not disinflation, that’s deflation.
2/
Core CPI MoM has come in at 0% for the last three months.