Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
Jun 3, 2021 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A thread...

$FSLY

Bars: Revenue (TTM)
Line: Gross Profit (TTM)

cmlviz.com/stocks/FSLY/fi…

/1
...

$ROKU

Bars: Revenue (TTM)
Line: Gross Profit (TTM)

cmlviz.com/stocks/ROKU/fi…

/2
$PINS

Bars: Revenue (TTM)
Line: Gross Profit (TTM)

cmlviz.com/stocks/PINS/fi…

/3
$PD

Bars: Revenue (TTM)
Line: Gross Profit (TTM)

cmlviz.com/stocks/PD/fina…

/4
$FTCH

Bars: Revenue (TTM)
Lines: Gross Profit (TTM)

Between this chart and repeated raised analyst revenue estimates for 2021 (beat and raise cadence) trying to catch up to the company, the 'overvalued' argument falls flat, and it does so by a lot.
cmlviz.com/stocks/FTCH/fi…

/5
Now that we have seen financials, we can also see how analysts have been behind the curve.

$ROKU

This chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.

This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021

/6
Now that we have seen financials ☝️, we can also see...

$FSLY

This chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.

This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021

Guidance is now $390M.

/7
Now that we have seen financials ☝️, we can also see...

$PINS

This chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.

This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021

Note incorrect COVID impacted estimates.

/8
Now that we have seen financials ☝️ we can also see...

$PD

Chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time.

This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021

Note, again, incorrect COVID impacted estimates.

/9
Perspective:

Price in short-term does not (necessarily) reflect business in long-term.

$ROKU $FSLY $PINS $PD $FTCH

(Do this with any of your holdings)

"What you see and what you are told are not necessarily the same thing."

See it right:
bit.ly/CMLPro

10/10
..and one extra...

$ETSC

Chart illustrates analyst estimates for FY 2021 revenue through time (FY21 just ended).

This is *not* a chart of revenue, it is a chart of estimates changing for the period: FY2021

Rising estimates as analysts try to catch up, created this today

/11

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Jun 4
$CRWD

1/ Image
$CRWD

Net new ARR rose to $211.7M from $174.2M in Q1 of last year.

2/
$CRWD

Growth is back; look at new new ARR:

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 21
$GLBE

Stock reaction is down due to full year GMV guidance ($4.71B) coming in a bit soft versus consensus ($4.73B) but as we discuss below, that guidance feels quite comfortably conservate and barring an economic collapse, we see GLBE outperforming.

A (short) thread

1/🧵
That $4.71B GMV guidance (at the midpoint) feels quite achievable if not conservative.

The number implies 32.4% YoY growth off of 2023 which saw 45% growth, but we can disentangle that further.

2/
It was uncovered in the analyst Q&A portion of the earnings call that $200M – $300M of new GMV in 2024 will come from a conservate view of the Shopify Markets Pro rollout which started in September of 2023.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 26
We just have to be intellectually honest: the Federal Reserve simply cannot keep up with how fast inflation is falling.

A thread...

1/🧵
In September of 2023, the Fed's median estimate for Core PCE at the end of 2023 was 3.7%.

The Fed revised that last month to 3.2%; that alone is a wild misread.

Core PCE just came in at 2.9% for the full year.

2/
Compound that with the misread after two-months and we have a Fed that simply doesn't understand the framework of the inflation cycle.

Disinflation is accelerating. It just is. Put your biases aside; these are facts and they are not disputed.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
Wholesale Inflation Falls Again; #Disinflation Station

A thread

1/
The Producer Price Index (PPI), as opposed to Consumer Price Index (CPI) that we received yesterday, came in below estimates both for headline and core.

In fact, overall PPI MoM has come in negative for two consecutive quarters - that’s not disinflation, that’s deflation.

2/
Core CPI MoM has come in at 0% for the last three months.

Here is a chart of Core PPI:

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 23, 2023
$MSFT

/1
$CRWD

/2
$META

/3
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17, 2023
$SPX So tight, so ready to break in one direction or the other.
$QQQ Strength when compared to $SPX, but very tight.
$KRE 😬

/3
Read 10 tweets

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