Failed to close above the $39.2K daily level I mentioned yesterday and then dumped below the breakout point of the pennant as well.
Back to the mid range which held for now.
After this throwback to the mid range I'm short term neutral now. Fundings are going up which is generally bearish but we are still above the mid range which is good.
If we lose the mid range we'll likely visit the bottom yellow trendline.
If price were to also lose that trendline I think there is a high probability we do go for the $30K lows. We'll have to see how price reacts there.
This is still quite far out though but good to have a plan ahead of time.
We'll have to see how much of this all was to thank to that cryptic Elon tweet. I have the feeling that most of the move is actually whales playing into it, making it look very scary for people that then panic sell into the dump.
If we'd see a quick recovery during the rest of the day that's likely what happened but it's too early to tell.
Just looking at the tweet itself it didn't mean much after all so I doubt a -6% isn't just a big over-reaction in the immediate short term.
Price did still manage to make a slightly higher low on low timeframe so let's see if that holds for now, just like the mid range at $36.2K.
The "Elon fucked us over" narrative is back in full force.
Think to yourself: "Was that tweet really that important to make price dump over 6%?"
It was mostly just a meme. Elon complaining about $BTC's environmental issues and Tesla not accepting BTC was the actual news.
1/x
Those announcements happened over a week ago.
Half of the people blaming Elon today, don't even seem to know what is said. They just heard/read somewhere that the price dumped again because of Elon and didn't even bother to find out what he actually said.
2/x
Besides, the harm in the chart was already done. We closed below the daily resistance and then started falling after that. Elon's tweet was over an hour after that.
$BTC Funding is moving more into the negative as we're moving up. The majority of this is likely caused by people short hedging their spot holdings as we're coming close to a big resistance zone, which would make sense.
1/5
The thing is, if there's really a lot of people piling into shorts at around the same level. Price tends to just blast through the resistance to take out all these shorts before possibly reversing afterwards.
2/5
So yes, hedging makes sense if you want to play it safe in my opinion but be aware that price may extend a lot longer than you initially anticipate.
Mainly due to a big short squeeze which could be sustained for a while if people keep trying to short.
3/5
$BTC.D had a big bounce when BTC dropped but is still failing to see continuation which is good for alts relative to BTC.
If it wants to continue up, and not go down further, it should bounce here and make it's way towards 50%.
1/4
The current correlation between $ALTS and $BTC seems to be that whenever BTC moves up, so do ALT/BTC pairs and vice versa.
This correlation is often the case after a correction and usually ends whenever BTC starts making big moves towards the upside towards ATH area's.
2/4
When that happens, BTC tends to move up quickly and leave ALT/BTC pairs behind seeing all the attention is on BTC and people don't need alts to get good gains.
This means that IF BTC were to grind up slowly, we could very well see alts continue to do well relative to BTC.
3/4
I'm also aware that I could be wrong and will be happy to accept the fact. This mindset makes me able to flip bias quickly without being stubborn and staying on the losing side for too long.
"So we go up, down or sideways?" well, we obviously get signs to tell us which scenario it's going to be before it fully plays out. We can then anticipate on those.
1/x
🔹Scenario 1 📈
This is basically the idea I showed yesterday about the Wyckoff accumulation WITHOUT spring. If this were to happen, especially during the weekend, I expect a lot of people to be left behind. More about that later.
The Wyckoff accumulation WITH a spring. That thread I made yesterday got bombarded with people thinking we MUST have this spring. Just because of that it makes me doubt we even get this. Time will tell.
What has always fascinated me is how the average person tends to react their anger out at other people when something goes wrong. Especially financially.
This is quite hard to understand for me personally.
1/8
I do understand that financial losses can hit you emotionally. But my first response is always to look at the mistakes I made myself. Not blame others, especially if they had nothing to do with it at all.
2/8
We see this everywhere in the world. Just as an example, things like online gaming, where the worst player in the team is often the most aggressive/angry person which tells others to do better etc.
3/8