"So we go up, down or sideways?" well, we obviously get signs to tell us which scenario it's going to be before it fully plays out. We can then anticipate on those.
1/x
🔹Scenario 1 📈
This is basically the idea I showed yesterday about the Wyckoff accumulation WITHOUT spring. If this were to happen, especially during the weekend, I expect a lot of people to be left behind. More about that later.
The Wyckoff accumulation WITH a spring. That thread I made yesterday got bombarded with people thinking we MUST have this spring. Just because of that it makes me doubt we even get this. Time will tell.
3/x
If price were to go below yesterday's lows at <$33K I reckon we do go for the lows and try to make the spring.
Key is then, to sweep the $30K lows and quickly bounce back. If we start trading below $30K for a while without any sign of a bounce we might go for Scenario 3.
4/x
🔹Scenario 3 📉
Where we really go test some lower levels like $20-23K. Atm, I doubt this will happen because of the reasons i've already mentioned plenty of times (See tweet). But it's always something we got to keep in the back of our minds.
I'm ready to flip towards this bias if we do find acceptance below 28-30K and show weakness. I'd then hedge up and buy back once we retake the 30K level or bounce from 20-23K. This way you only miss out on a tiny profit while protecting yourself from a lot of downside risk.
6/x
Having said all that, IF price were to take off here, that'd be amazing timing in my opinion. That would leave behind:
1. People waiting for 30K. 2. People bearish in general and waiting for lower than 30K. 3. If during the weekend, people waiting for the "CME Gap" to fill.
7/x
If I was a whale, and just accumulated a ton of $BTC, that'd be a great scenario where all these people either keep getting short squeezed or will fomo in to pump your bags higher up. All while you can still accumulate on the way up into their sells.
8/x
Once again, we'll first need invalidation of Scenario 1 and 2 for Scenario 3 to even be on the radar.
In the end, accumulation, if that's what this is, takes as long as needed for people to fill their bags. This can take days, weeks or months.
9/x
That's it for now. Next week will be interesting. If spot markets start bidding up the price. I think we will make our way towards 42-43K quickly. Price could still come down after that so we'll have to reassess from there.👍
10/x
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$BTC.D had a big bounce when BTC dropped but is still failing to see continuation which is good for alts relative to BTC.
If it wants to continue up, and not go down further, it should bounce here and make it's way towards 50%.
1/4
The current correlation between $ALTS and $BTC seems to be that whenever BTC moves up, so do ALT/BTC pairs and vice versa.
This correlation is often the case after a correction and usually ends whenever BTC starts making big moves towards the upside towards ATH area's.
2/4
When that happens, BTC tends to move up quickly and leave ALT/BTC pairs behind seeing all the attention is on BTC and people don't need alts to get good gains.
This means that IF BTC were to grind up slowly, we could very well see alts continue to do well relative to BTC.
3/4
I'm also aware that I could be wrong and will be happy to accept the fact. This mindset makes me able to flip bias quickly without being stubborn and staying on the losing side for too long.
What has always fascinated me is how the average person tends to react their anger out at other people when something goes wrong. Especially financially.
This is quite hard to understand for me personally.
1/8
I do understand that financial losses can hit you emotionally. But my first response is always to look at the mistakes I made myself. Not blame others, especially if they had nothing to do with it at all.
2/8
We see this everywhere in the world. Just as an example, things like online gaming, where the worst player in the team is often the most aggressive/angry person which tells others to do better etc.
3/8
First off, the real question is: Is this range accumulation or re-distribution?
The answer to that question will determine whether we eventually break up or down out of this range ($30-43K).
Wyckoff can give us a good indication of what we're working with.
The most telling factor here, will be the volume. If this were to be a distribution range, like we've seen at the top, we would be seeing increased volume on the sell-offs.
Still a lot of late shorters that have had an easy run so far. Usually these highs tend to get swept before anything else.
Keep your eyes out for a swing failure pattern to occur. This is where price sweeps these highs to take liquidity and rejects/falls immediately afterwards.
$BTC Solid breakout and retest of the diagonal so far. Looks good for continuation towards $39K and possibly 42-43K after that.
🔹What happened?
🔹Do I think the bull market is over?
🔹What's next?
🔹What will I be doing?
🔹What happened?
First off, what the hell happened?! Especially on May the 19th in particular?
Of course there's plenty of arguments and narratives for what happened. Be it Elon, China FUD or just the general end of the bull market as a whole.
1/x
The one thing that's most likely though, which we can see from the data, is the fact people have been over-leveraging into longs... A LOT.
We knew this was happening all along and usually we got away with a 20-30% dip but this was not like the other corrections.
2/x