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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

4 Jun, 12 tweets, 3 min read

Brexit's broken but is about to break a lot more! It's the gift that keeps on taking.

Here's a look at some upcoming changes.

30 June 2021: Deadline to apply for the EU citizen settlement scheme in the UK, and for equivalent schemes aimed at UK citizens in several EU countries.

1 July 2021: New EU VAT regime, affecting sales into the EU market by non-EU firms. Elimination of VAT exemption on low value consignments (previously up to EUR 22) so all goods imported into the EU will be liable to VAT.
ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…

1 October 2021: National IDs are no longer valid for most travel to the UK. Instead, passports will be required. Impacts school trips, language and cultural exchanges etc. (National IDs are mandatory in most EU countries, so many children won't have passports.)

1 October 2022: Importers of animal products will have to pre-notify officials.
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1 January 2022: CE mark will no longer be valid for goods on the UK market. Requires a new UK mark instead, at extra cost and double the certification effort. (UK manufacturers will also need CE marks to sell their products in the EU.)

Likely fewer product choices/higher prices.

1 January 2022: Introduction of customs declarations on all goods coming into the UK, as well as safety and security declarations. (Deferred customs declaration scheme ends.)
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1 January 2022: Physical SPS checks begin on animal products, and on high-risk plant products coming from the EU to the UK.
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

March 2022: Final "Phase 3" regime of inspections begins for plants and plant products imported from the EU to GB. Includes identity and physical SPS checks.
gov.uk/guidance/impor…

30 June 2022: EU's 18-month temporary equivalence decision on UK CCPs expires, affecting financial operations. (EU clearing members are meant to have reduced their exposure to UK CCPs by then.)
esma.europa.eu/press-news/esm…

1 January 2023: End of grace period for registering chemicals in the UK. Double registrations (UK and EU) required going forward. Added cost and admin.

There are probably plenty more deadlines and cliff-edges I've left off this list, so please let me know what I've forgotten. Thanks.

(P.S. Second tweet should be "October 2021" not "October 2022". Twitter really needs an Edit button! Sorry.)

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

@uk_domain_names

5 Jun

Here's a look at new cases vs hospitalisations vs deaths since 1 September 2020. The graphs are normalised so that "100%" represents the "worst data point" of each.

(It won't pinpoint the exact peaks because it uses 7-day batches of data, but it's close enough to see trends.)

NOTES:

1) Hospitalisations lag cases

2) Deaths lag hospitalisations

3) Vaccine has a real effect on reducing deaths (falling more steeply than hospitalisations)

4) Too little time has elapsed to see the expected increase in hospitalisations/deaths from recent spike in cases

In other words...

1) There are ALWAYS lags between new cases and hospitalisations, and between hospitalisations and deaths.

2) It's TOO EARLY to say whether the vaccine has broken the link. Another week and we'll know for hospitalisations. Another 2-3 weeks for deaths.

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

@uk_domain_names

4 Jun

"School trips to UK from EU could halve as Brexit hits cultural exchanges"

Means the loss of many hundreds of thousands of visitors, and the spending that comes with them.

Why? Because they can't travel on national IDs from October, only passports. theguardian.com/education/2021…

We're talking the loss of several million hotel nights. Plus much fewer children coming on language courses. A massive body blow to the economy.

BTW this isn't news, in the sense it's not a new revelation. Many people (including me) have been warning about that for years, because the decision to turn away from national IDs has been trailed for a long time.

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

@uk_domain_names

3 Jun

Brexit isn't working.

It's about to break a lot further.

- 1 July new EU VAT rules on low-value sales into bloc (= more red tape)

- Phytosanitary checks on incoming goods

- Customs checks on incoming goods

- End 2021: CE mark validity ends in UK. After that, UK mark needed.

Just to be clear, the new VAT rules generally make things easier IF you're an EU business.

They only make things more complicated if you have the misfortune not to be based in the EU.

And if you think the new VAT regulations look complicated, bear in mind the UK changed our VAT rules along similar lines on 1 January 2021 and many foreign firms ended up tearing their hair out.

(The change was thrashed out while the UK was still a member. We implemented first.)

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

@uk_domain_names

1 Jun

Lots of people seem to be excited about the zero covid deaths reported today for the UK.

But they're forgetting the bank holiday effect, which delays death reporting.

Look at the stats for deaths announced around the early May bank holiday to see an example of this in action...

And this time, we've also got half term to contend with. Labs won't necessarily be as fully staffed as usual.

So to sum up, we're coming off a weekend AND a bank holiday AND it's half term.

All three of these elements will reduce the timely reporting of deaths.

Another data point...

Last time zero covid deaths were reported was 30 July 2020.

But when the delayed reporting finally caught up, it turned out that actually 10 people had died that day rather than none.

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

@uk_domain_names

1 Jun

Let's play a little game: "2021 Liz Truss vs 2016 Liz Truss"

We all know how gung-ho LT is about her shoddy trade deals, and our terrible Brexit arrangement with the EU.

But what did she use to think back in the day, before ambition overtook principles, and she faked amnesia?

Hmm, is that all you've got, Liz?

Actually, no...

That's got to be it, right Liz? After all, you seemed pretty convinced at the time that the EU was the way to go.

What's that, there's more?

There you have it, folks. 2016 Liz Truss trounces 2021 Liz Truss by one fall, two submissions and a knockout.

Read 4 tweets

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

@uk_domain_names

1 Jun

https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1399593350341222401

Hurrah! Only 446 days after Boris Johnson warned us we should expect to lose loved ones before their time, Heathrow Airport has dedicated a terminal to flights from the most high-risk countries.

(If they're doing it now, they could have done it before. They've not built extra.)

https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1399593350341222401

The next thing to watch out for: do 100% of passengers landing at the new "red" terminal get taken directly to quarantine hotels?

In theory, nobody should be leaving the airport except the staff who work there (and eligible flight crews). Everyone else should be hotel-bound.

One more thing to watch out for: since by definition the average passenger arriving at the "red" terminal is more dangerous than a passenger arriving at another terminal, will very strict social distancing be in place across the entirety of the red terminal and up to the hotels?

Read 4 tweets

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