A thread
1/ #Bitcoin - How I’ll be trading the #deathcross!
The trade, should the patterns from 2014/18 bear markets repeat, is to buy weakness 7-10days heading into the 50/200 SMA death cross (2H~ of June) & sell 3-4wks later if & when we see the 50/200 EMA golden cross.
1/ #Bitcoin - How I’ll be trading the #deathcross!
The trade, should the patterns from 2014/18 bear markets repeat, is to buy weakness 7-10days heading into the 50/200 SMA death cross (2H~ of June) & sell 3-4wks later if & when we see the 50/200 EMA golden cross.
2/** DEATH CROSS INCOMING **
I recently read a great thread from @rektcapital summarising price action around major death cross signals on Bitcoin. In short, a death cross (50day below 200day) looks possible for the first time in this bear market by 2H of June to early July.
I recently read a great thread from @rektcapital summarising price action around major death cross signals on Bitcoin. In short, a death cross (50day below 200day) looks possible for the first time in this bear market by 2H of June to early July.
3/ ** HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT MED-TERM DOWNSIDE AFTER A DEATH CROSS **
In 2014 it was followed by 71%~ downside before the cycle lows. In 2017 there was a further 65%~ correction to cycle lows. HOWEVER in both these cases the death cross was a s-term buying opportunity.
In 2014 it was followed by 71%~ downside before the cycle lows. In 2017 there was a further 65%~ correction to cycle lows. HOWEVER in both these cases the death cross was a s-term buying opportunity.
4/ ** THE STRATEGY **
Having spent a career looking at charts my intuition was always to buy a death cross. Somewhat intuitive given longer moving averages lag not lead = a lot of downside occurs ahead of the death cross, explaining why its often “sell the rumor buy the fact”.
Having spent a career looking at charts my intuition was always to buy a death cross. Somewhat intuitive given longer moving averages lag not lead = a lot of downside occurs ahead of the death cross, explaining why its often “sell the rumor buy the fact”.
5/ In 2014 bear market, a death cross (50/200 SMA - red cross on chart) in April was preceded by a 42%~ fall in the 2 weeks heading into the event. <4wks later Bitcoin was +100%~, signaled a golden cross (50/200 EMA - green cross on chart) and then we rolled over again.
6/ In 2018 bear market, a death cross (50/200 SMA - red cross on chart) also in April was preceded by a 29%~ fall in the 2 wks heading into the event. Just over 1mth~ later Bitcoin was +56%~, signaled a golden cross (50/200 EMA - green cross on chart)& then we rolled over again.
7/ ** PICKING LEVELS **
Picking levels is difficult as we all know. If a similar pattern occurs in June 2021 I would imagine $25k~ in the sell-off followed by possible bounce to $42-48k before we roll over again.
Or maybe it’s different this time. Here’s hoping it is… 🙏🌖🚀
Picking levels is difficult as we all know. If a similar pattern occurs in June 2021 I would imagine $25k~ in the sell-off followed by possible bounce to $42-48k before we roll over again.
Or maybe it’s different this time. Here’s hoping it is… 🙏🌖🚀
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