1 of 6/ Excellent essay by @JasonBordoff. In my words, killing Big Oil does not kill society’s desire to drive, fly, trade, conduct business, and aspire for middle class+ lifestyles.
https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1400603280129105921
2/ A few Qs: Do climate activists really want a world where OPEC+ gains market share? Why deter Canadian oil supply but not Iranian or Russian supply? Why not encourage governments to take serious steps to enforce ACTUAL mpg gains (hint: CAFE hasn’t worked)?
3/ Big Oil’s biggest issue is insufficient profitability over the past decade and it isn’t even that Big anymore at <3% of S&P. Medium Oil may be more accurate? Climate activism is currently aligned with traditional shareholders that want less CAPEX and more dividends. Thank you.
4/ Non-Ivory Tower elites want affordable, accessible, secure energy. Preferably cleaner, but not if it means doing without. Heretofore society has been unwilling to pay more for clean or sacrifice comfort for efficiency gains….neither of which are “Big Oil” issues.
5/ IMO the current combination of climate activism and a higher cost of capital will drive structural improvements in returns on capital for the Oil & Gas sector, including Big Oil. The energy transition will take decades to unfold and, in the meantime, people want to drive.
6/ To be clear, I support transitioning our energy systems over time to limit warming. But this insane effort to kill Big Oil I think does, at a maximum, nothing to achieve climate objectives and most likely delays better outcomes as oil supply invariably shifts to OPEC+.
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