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Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@JackSillin
Jun 5, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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About to head out for my first storm chase of the season here in #MEwx.

Maine chasing options are extremely limited by visibility thanks to lots of hills and even more trees. I have pre-scouted spots ready to go once storms develop.

Today’s target prob the hill N of Auburn.
Now for the classic dilemma of which storm to target. Skowhegan looks too far north, a couple cells along the pre-frontal trough farther south look meh, that cell north of MWN though...
ZDR says aim for Andover or Canton
Alright let’s play the cells developing on the leading edge of the subtle MCV left over from AM storms near BTV
1- the plan
2- the backup plan

Yes this is what we chase in Maine
Cute little base on the cell west of Lewiston
#bust

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More from @JackSillin

Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 30, 2022
There are a whole lot of houses that shouldn’t exist in Florida (and elsewhere!) and the sad fact is a tremendous number of them are about to be rebuilt on taxpayers’ dime through NFIP.

This is not what climate resilience looks like.
NFIP is one of America’s leading climate blind spots and a hugely underrated problem.

It keeps people in homes that shouldn’t exist so they can experience the danger and trauma of devastating floods over and over and over again.

shfwire.com/new-bills-seek…
It’s also an incredible drain on taxpayer dollars that could be spent on real, sustainable solutions.

houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-t…
Read 6 tweets
Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 11, 2021
The storm is really starting to feel the squeeze between new cells encroaching from the south and the broader line of storms approaching from the west.

It's still dangerous and in a dangerous environment, but I think its time of unrivaled dominance is running out.
Indeed, the latest scan shows higher CC values (though still enough of a drop to be considered a TDS IMO), a weaker/broader couplet, and a lack of a clearly-defined reflectivity hook.

It's still dangerous, but it's no longer in tip top shape.
The storm has been tornado-warned for approximately 5 hours (first mention by me: ) while tracking about 250mi across 4 states producing serious damage in several places.

Whatever the official survey brings, this will be talked about for quite a while.
Read 4 tweets
Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 11, 2021
Still nothing standing in the way of this supercell producing a strong to violent tornado for the forseeable future, though low-level instability starts waning a bit as you approach the I-69 corridor.

Either way, if you're in the storm's path (even if not warned yet), be ready.
SPC is clearly on the same page with a new MD saying that this storm could remain at or near this intensity (producing a strong to violent tornado) for *at least* another HOUR #KYwx
An hour later and there's still plenty of creme-de-la-creme environment left to go as warm air advection keeps expanding the warm sector northeast.

Eventually the storm will run into colder more stable air or be undercut by outflow from the W, but it seems like that's a ways off
Read 4 tweets
Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 6, 2021
As we start a new week, let's check in to see what's on the menu down in the tropics.

-#Larry recurves into the North Atlantic, perhaps brushing NL.

-#91L may still develop but probably not until it moves east of FL.

-New Caribbean wave to watch.

-Maybe a new EATL storm. Image
Right now, of the three storms that have yet to develop, the new Caribbean system probably deserves the most scrutiny.

It will form in a manner similar to Ida and 91L, which means it could either become an impactful storm or wander west into Central America. Image
#91L isn't looking too hot this morning given the wind shear and dry air we've been talking about for several days.

We'll watch to see if any circulation might be able to form under the deeper convection that has been popping up this morning due west of Key West.
Read 5 tweets
Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 5, 2021
As someone:
-without a meteorology degree
-very self-conscious about how those in the field regard me as a person/info source
-who makes mistakes

I’m very familiar with feeling nervous about being labeled a source of misinfo.
I’m never going to be perfect but I try very hard to respond to and improve from criticism.

Neither outlet I mentioned in my earlier tweet has ever made even cursory gestures in that direction, hence the rather harsh approach in dealing with them.
I definitely don’t want my initial tweet to be interpreted as “HS kids in their parents basement are the problem” as someone who has done (and is still doing! And will still be doing until May!) a lot of tweeting without the requisite degrees.
Read 5 tweets
Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 5, 2021
As we're in peak Hurricane Season and the tropical Atlantic remains active, here's a quick reminder to make sure you're tuned into reliable sources (first and foremost @NHC_Atlantic) and tuned out of the cacophony of misinformation.

Here's some BS I've been asked about today: ImageImage
@NHC_Atlantic Both of these outlets are well-known purveyors of misinformation about tropical cyclones. If you're following them, I suggest the unfollow button.

If friends/family ask you about their posts, I'd make the same suggestion.
@NHC_Atlantic Remember:
-ONLY the NHC makes determinations about what category a storm is, and anyone claiming to do so is leading you astray.

-NO long range (7-10day+) deterministic model forecast is worth posting or getting concerned about.
Read 5 tweets

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