Can't believe I'm saying this...
I'm actually concerned we may default on our national debt.
Anytime a country has gone to 130% det / GDP it has been a metaphorical point of no return.
The country has defaulted, a 🧵based on an industry report that got me humming.
I'm actually concerned we may default on our national debt.
Anytime a country has gone to 130% det / GDP it has been a metaphorical point of no return.
The country has defaulted, a 🧵based on an industry report that got me humming.
Story time: Over the past 200 years
98% of nations that hit 130% defaulted on their debt (usually through inflation.)
Japan is the only one in 200 years that hasn’t defaulted BUT
Japan is rare...
98% of nations that hit 130% defaulted on their debt (usually through inflation.)
Japan is the only one in 200 years that hasn’t defaulted BUT
Japan is rare...
Japan is a nation:
- in budget surplus (i.e. they run a net profitable biz)
- internally funded (i.e. they buy their own goods)
- with a Net Int’l Investment Position (NIIP) of +70% of GDP (aka they save a lot, and can ask for their $ back from other countries i.e. US.)
- in budget surplus (i.e. they run a net profitable biz)
- internally funded (i.e. they buy their own goods)
- with a Net Int’l Investment Position (NIIP) of +70% of GDP (aka they save a lot, and can ask for their $ back from other countries i.e. US.)
Compare to the US:
- budget deficit & climbing (aka we're a co Softbank would back😶)
- externally funded (need other countries to buy from us)
-a NIIP of -65% of GDP (i.e. we aren't savers, can't call in debt from others)
- all we have is a printing press
- & people's trust
- budget deficit & climbing (aka we're a co Softbank would back😶)
- externally funded (need other countries to buy from us)
-a NIIP of -65% of GDP (i.e. we aren't savers, can't call in debt from others)
- all we have is a printing press
- & people's trust
So in other happy news...
US is 180-degree opposite situation of Japan.
Japan got deflation…
US is going to have inflation...
That's all.
I hope they're wrong - tell me why?
US is 180-degree opposite situation of Japan.
Japan got deflation…
US is going to have inflation...
That's all.
I hope they're wrong - tell me why?
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