A couple of geniuses finding out many B / BB mortgage bonds are defaulted and rating agencies covered everything making the public believing the market was still going strong because it's "good business" for banks.
(Part 2) These geniuses bought credit default swaps (CDS) and shorted the entire mortgage market betting against the stupidity of greedy institutions. When these bonds went bust, bankers were literally crying because these shorters controlled all of the supply needed to survive.
(Part 3) Fast forward with $AMC (& any highly shorted securities) - the bullish market lasted for so many years - many parties being overextended with large amount of margin, credit, and debt.
(Part 4) Many greedy institutions have decided to short the entire market with synthetics and naked shorts during the COVID crash and doubled down into believing some fragile businesses would be wiped out - taking into consideration what happened in 2008.
(Part 5) These institutions borrowed so much in order to make huge profits since the crash and have yet covered their short positions in some securities.
(Part 6) Retail investors have found some loopholes into the stock market and highly shorted securities just happen to be (imo) the "new CDS" of the year. We now control the supply.
This movement is into the "Reverse Big Short".
Welcome to the Big Long!
Ba-dum-tss!😂
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(Part 1) S3 Partners have reported 16.01M shorted shares sold short covered. $AMC
How is that even possible?
Relax. Take a deep breath.
Let's wait for Ortex if they are showing the same correlation of such similar change. Peer-review and reassess intel!
(Part 2) Let's not forget S3 Partners is speculatively owned by Citadel. Regardless of the documentation out there, there are no concrete proof to prove this connection - but it is healthy to challenge ourselves to give the benefit of the doubt - and being cautious.
(Part 3) Ortex and S3 Partners are distinctive proprietary analytical platforms and they receive information based on whatever institutions are authorized to give them.
We cannot blame them for doing their job of reporting regardless if it's false/true/delayed data.
(Part 2) The reverse repo market is essentially the FED acting as a pawn / maintenance shop borrowing from banks, effectively decreasing market liquidity in the financial world.
(Part 3) The FED and the government are two different entities - their interests don't always align with each other but their primary mandate is to serve the general interest of the public. Hold that thought.
Based on the data reported to S3, there was a return of 1.4M shorted shares this week (1.6% of the total 88.2M shares sold short).
(Part 2) They covered 1.4M shorted shares while returning another 27.6M that they had borrowed for the sake of shorting but it was likely to be an awful idea due to risk exposure.
Now, we have an increasing amount of institutions prohibiting short selling.
(Part 3) If short sellers only covered 1.6% - the share price went up roughly 86%. If we're tracking this proportionally with the price increase per percentage point of SI covered going forward...
(Part 2) This is a phenomenon that is indicative that these highly shorted securities are extremely hazardous, based on risk assessment - requiring an increasing collateral requirement to maintain these shorts as potential losses are very high - if not guaranteed.
When people are criticizing @BAMinvestor (a pioneer of behavioral analysis of the Markets - spent countless years on refining his field specialization - having a solid line of scholarly-based credibility)...
(Part 2) ...just because his PREDICTION analysis model was underperforming today.
Keyword is "prediction". His algorithmic model is based on quantitative data to let him conduct some advanced analysis which has been reliable and accurate many times over.
(Part 3) More accurate than the dedicated services I rely on or Fidelity's.
Predicting with a 80-90% accuracy on zones of strength and weaknesses for $AMC within a 10-min window is impressive.
I remember the days when $GME took off in January, it faced a negative % SI change and people thought the stock was being covered. But it wasn't the case and doubt snowballed the price action with massive selling movement.
(Part 2)
$AMC presents shows a similar pattern with a substantial drop of the SI with more shares being returned but the value of share on loans also spiking.
In laymen's terms, they have doubled down on shorts just like I said previously with the OCC notice.
(Part 3) The inflated OI in the option chains are increasing - suggesting short sellers are placing hedges, hoping to change the price movement and also acting as a "spoof" of the SI presented on Ortex. It is not 100% conclusive but it is likely the thesis.