Watch this space for further updates; we will augment these series to report how much of the domestic currency sovereign bonds are held by foreign investors
Or, how much have EMEs left behind Original Sin only to encounter "Original Sin Redux"?
One key theme is the prevalence of offshore borrowing; corporates borrow in dollars through their affiliates abroad
For international debt securities, the "nationality" series that sees through to the parent is more than double the "residence" series for EMEs (right-hand panel)
The new dataset gives a comprehensive picture of long-term government bonds, in line with the renewed focus on market/duration risk and the activity of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs)
Follow the link to the dataset and compilation guide
There are also two accompanying data visualisation tools as easy-to-use dashboards
The first is a cross-section dashboard that shows how the currency denomination and non-resident investor share show up as a scatter... and how the chart evolves over time bis.org/temp/panels/sm…
Inspired by the debate between @nfergus and @adam_tooze on the current state of globalisation, I devoted my lecture at Columbia this week to take the pulse on global value chains:
Real exports have grown but so has real GDP; we need to scale trade by the size of the economy, taking account of the different price indices (exports are goods heavy, GDP is services heavy as @BaldwinRE has argued eloquently)
The ratio of global real exports to global real GDP looks like this
Price rises have affected a broader range of commodities this time round than in the 1970s (for instance, see the yellow bar on industrial metals), but the size of the oil price shock has been much less than the 1973 shock
The inflationary backdrop was more menacing in 1973, with the global economy having lost the Bretton Wood nominal anchor a couple of years before; arguably, policy frameworks are much better now
On the other hand, the recent rise in inflation (in yellow) has been steep