Hyun Song Shin Profile picture
Jun 7, 2021 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The BIS is expanding coverage of its government bonds statistics

A thread follows
The BIS Quarterly Review out today has an introductory piece outlining what's new

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
Bird's eye view of what's on offer from the BIS on its coverage of government bonds

Table C4 is brand new; it has the all-important breakdown by currency of issue

bis.org/statistics/sec…
Total amounts have risen, and emerging market economies (in dark blue) now account for around a quarter of the total

("general government" includes regional government bonds, as well as sovereign bonds narrowly defined)

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
The key takeaway is that emerging markets increasingly borrow in their own currencies, reducing their reliance on foreign currency borrowing

... at least, on the part of their governments; corporate borrowing is a different matter

Watch this space for further updates; we will augment these series to report how much of the domestic currency sovereign bonds are held by foreign investors

Or, how much have EMEs left behind Original Sin only to encounter "Original Sin Redux"?

bis.org/speeches/sp190…
And speaking of corporate debt, the BIS Quarterly Review released today has a must-see piece on the subject

Thread continues to guide you through the highlights

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
One key theme is the prevalence of offshore borrowing; corporates borrow in dollars through their affiliates abroad

For international debt securities, the "nationality" series that sees through to the parent is more than double the "residence" series for EMEs (right-hand panel)
Here is the breakdown by country
bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
This touches on another BIS theme - the risk-taking channel of exchange rates

Financial conditions in EMEs fluctuate with the strength of the dollar
Plenty more for readers to ponder

Check it out

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…

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More from @HyunSongShin

Feb 28, 2023
BIS working paper introducing a new dataset on emerging market sovereign bonds; tracking the currency of denomination and the residence of investors

"Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset"

bis.org/publ/work1075.…
The new dataset gives a comprehensive picture of long-term government bonds, in line with the renewed focus on market/duration risk and the activity of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs)

Follow the link to the dataset and compilation guide

bis.org/publ/work1075.…
There are also two accompanying data visualisation tools as easy-to-use dashboards

The first is a cross-section dashboard that shows how the currency denomination and non-resident investor share show up as a scatter... and how the chart evolves over time
bis.org/temp/panels/sm…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 18, 2023
Inspired by the debate between @nfergus and @adam_tooze on the current state of globalisation, I devoted my lecture at Columbia this week to take the pulse on global value chains:

"Global value chains under the shadow of Covid"

bis.org/speeches/sp230…
First, some background to set the scene

Real exports have grown but so has real GDP; we need to scale trade by the size of the economy, taking account of the different price indices (exports are goods heavy, GDP is services heavy as @BaldwinRE has argued eloquently)
The ratio of global real exports to global real GDP looks like this
Read 22 tweets
Dec 17, 2022
"There is a bitter irony in the turmoil currently gripping the crypto universe..."

My op-ed in the FT on the great unravelling of crypto

ft.com/content/76234c…
While we survey the wreckage and plot a course for the policy response to rein in the sector, we need to keep in mind some home truths

Crypto operates under the banner of decentralisation, but it is highly centralised in two crucial respects
First, many supposedly decentralised protocols turn out to be highly concentrated in governance and control

In most instances, crypto is decentralised in name only
Read 15 tweets
May 18, 2022
Will commodity prices tip the global economy into a 1970s-style stagflation?

Today's #BIS_Bulletin weighs the arguments and does some number crunching in search of an answer

A thread:
bis.org/publ/bisbull54…
Price rises have affected a broader range of commodities this time round than in the 1970s (for instance, see the yellow bar on industrial metals), but the size of the oil price shock has been much less than the 1973 shock
The inflationary backdrop was more menacing in 1973, with the global economy having lost the Bretton Wood nominal anchor a couple of years before; arguably, policy frameworks are much better now

On the other hand, the recent rise in inflation (in yellow) has been steep
Read 17 tweets
Apr 16, 2022
Central banks are picking up the pace in their work on digital currencies, moving from talk to actions

On 9-10 February, I chaired a meeting of deputy governors from 26 EM central banks

Here is a thread on the key lessons, just published

bis.org/publ/bppdf/bis…
In the run-up to the meeting, Mexico and India had announced their intention to launch their CBDCs and set the tone toward practical design choices

Here's a summary table from the report; numbers indicating extent of buy-in (1.0 means unanimity) Image
Competition and financial inclusion figured prominently

CBDCs are close cousins to instant payment systems that rest on digital ID and technical standards (APIs) that ensure interoperability

Brazil's Pix shows what's possible

Read 9 tweets
Apr 4, 2022
Crypto markets have found an outlet in centralized finance, or "DeFi"

Is DeFi the acceptable face of crypto?

Or can central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) do DeFi but without selling coins for speculation?

A thread on a panel I chaired this morning Image
One notable development has been the fragmentation of the blockchain universe, with #Ethereum giving up its dominance to newer chains

The chart below shows the percentage of collateral value locked in various chains; #Ethereum had close to 100%; now barely 50% Image
Such fragmentation suggests that network effects are not operating (or operating strongly); typically, businesses with network effects give rise to "winner takes tall"

Crypto markets are not an example of such markets
Read 17 tweets

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