Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BIS_Bulletin
Most recents (10)
Will commodity prices tip the global economy into a 1970s-style stagflation?
Today's #BIS_Bulletin weighs the arguments and does some number crunching in search of an answer
A thread:
bis.org/publ/bisbull54…
Today's #BIS_Bulletin weighs the arguments and does some number crunching in search of an answer
A thread:
bis.org/publ/bisbull54…
Price rises have affected a broader range of commodities this time round than in the 1970s (for instance, see the yellow bar on industrial metals), but the size of the oil price shock has been much less than the 1973 shock
The inflationary backdrop was more menacing in 1973, with the global economy having lost the Bretton Wood nominal anchor a couple of years before; arguably, policy frameworks are much better now
On the other hand, the recent rise in inflation (in yellow) has been steep
On the other hand, the recent rise in inflation (in yellow) has been steep
A quiet revolution in the monetary system started in November 2020, when Brazil launched its Pix instant payment system
In little over a year, it signed up two-thirds of Brazil's adult population
The latest #BIS_Bulletin tells the amazing story
A thread
bis.org/publ/bisbull52…
In little over a year, it signed up two-thirds of Brazil's adult population
The latest #BIS_Bulletin tells the amazing story
A thread
bis.org/publ/bisbull52…
The trajectory of adoption by users has been phenomenal since the launch of Pix in November 2020
The trajectory is even clearer in this chart which shows the relative adoption by comparison to other retail fast payment systems
House prices boomed during the Covid recession - a big departure from past recessions
Where house prices go from here will be a key determinant of global activity
A thread from our latest #BIS_Bulletin on the topic
bis.org/publ/bisbull50…
Where house prices go from here will be a key determinant of global activity
A thread from our latest #BIS_Bulletin on the topic
bis.org/publ/bisbull50…
First, it's worth stressing how unusual the Covid recession was in terms of house prices
Typically, economic downturns are followed by a moderate fall in house prices lasting about four quarters
This time round, there was not even a temporary dip
Typically, economic downturns are followed by a moderate fall in house prices lasting about four quarters
This time round, there was not even a temporary dip
At the same time, the international co-movement of house prices has strengthened; more than 60% of house price movements can now be explained by a common global factor
Small open economies (both advanced and emerging) have been at the sharp end of this development
Small open economies (both advanced and emerging) have been at the sharp end of this development
The opening seminar for the Indonesian G20 presidency was a good opportunity to take stock of #bottlenecks and #inflation risks
A thread follows
bis.org/speeches/sp211…
A thread follows
bis.org/speeches/sp211…
Supply bottlenecks have grabbed all the headlines recently, but longer-term structural changes brought about by the pandemic (labour markets, especially) are important to understand where we are headed
bis.org/publ/bisbull47…
bis.org/publ/bisbull47…
But first, a recap of where we stand on #bottlenecks
The sharp swings in some commodity prices (lumber, iron ore, coal) are suggestive of #bullwhip effects
For their part, shipping costs look to have peaked
The sharp swings in some commodity prices (lumber, iron ore, coal) are suggestive of #bullwhip effects
For their part, shipping costs look to have peaked
Good observations by @EtraAlex
Two further points to bear in mind are (1) counterparty sector (official or private financial, private non-financial) and (2) the distinction between location and nationality
For this, the following BIS data would shed more light
(continued)
Two further points to bear in mind are (1) counterparty sector (official or private financial, private non-financial) and (2) the distinction between location and nationality
For this, the following BIS data would shed more light
(continued)
First, regarding the counterparty sector, the 2020:Q1 surge in cross-border banking flows stands out
Normally, we would expect a sharp retrenchment during stress episodes, but there was instead a surge, as discussed in this #BIS_Bulletin
bis.org/publ/bisbull34…
Normally, we would expect a sharp retrenchment during stress episodes, but there was instead a surge, as discussed in this #BIS_Bulletin
bis.org/publ/bisbull34…
A closer look reveals that most of the flows were the recycling of dollar funding through interoffice flows as part of a "Grand Overdraft"; this explains the surge and the subsequent unwinding
The inflation surge has brought #bottlenecks under the spotlight
Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward
A short thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull48…
Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward
A short thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull48…
Bottlenecks started out as disruptions to supply, but they have morphed into something more
Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping
Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping
So, what then is going on?
Two factors are key: (1) shift in composition of demand and (2) the endogenous changes in behaviour that's given rise to bullwhip effects
Let me takes these in turn
Two factors are key: (1) shift in composition of demand and (2) the endogenous changes in behaviour that's given rise to bullwhip effects
Let me takes these in turn
Corporate credit markets decoupled in March; bond issuance boomed but discretionary bank credit stalled
Unequal access to credit between large firms and the rest is the topic of today's #BIS_Bulletin
A thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull29…
Unequal access to credit between large firms and the rest is the topic of today's #BIS_Bulletin
A thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull29…
First, some facts:
The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
This decoupling of the bond and syndicated loan market is a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of Lehman, when loan volumes crashed and bond issuance surged (right-hand panel)
Inflation tail risks have risen, mostly to the downside but some also to the upside
Today's #BIS_Bulletin sorts through the cases
bis.org/publ/bisbull28…
Today's #BIS_Bulletin sorts through the cases
bis.org/publ/bisbull28…
Phillips curve reasoning carries us a long way: subdued activity increases downside tail risk to inflation; but this is not the only story on inflation
The authors get at tail risks through quantile regressions that track outliers in realised inflation; the red curves below give the densities of 4-quarter ahead probability densities for inflation
Central bank swap lines were instrumental in quelling #DollarFunding stresses back in March
The latest #BIS_Bulletin provides a bird's eye perspective, showcasing the use of BIS banking statistics at its best bis.org/publ/bisbull27…
A thread follows
The latest #BIS_Bulletin provides a bird's eye perspective, showcasing the use of BIS banking statistics at its best bis.org/publ/bisbull27…
A thread follows
First thing to say is that #DollarFunding need outside the Unites States is big; dollar liabilities of non-US banks comes in at 13 trillion dollars - this is the same figure as just before the GFC
But notice the shift in the composition; the GFC was essentially a transatlantic crisis, with European banks at the eye of the storm.
European banks have retrenched, but others have taken their place; Asian EMEs are especially notable
European banks have retrenched, but others have taken their place; Asian EMEs are especially notable
The pandemic has been a perfect storm for emerging markets; the latest #BIS_Bulletin looks at how EME central banks intervened in their bond markets to quell financial turmoil
bis.org/publ/bisbull20…
bis.org/publ/bisbull20…
Bond purchases by EME central banks complemented cuts in policy rates to ease financial conditions
Bond purchases were were also notable in being unsterilised; EME central banks bought bonds outright financed with reserves of the banking sector
