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Hyun Song Shin Profile picture
Hyun Song Shin
@HyunSongShin
Economic Adviser and Head of Research, Bank for International Settlements
MacroPru😷 Profile picture David Yun Profile picture Jorge Carrera Profile picture newssubscriber Profile picture Andi Liu Profile picture 6 subscribed
Feb 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
BIS working paper introducing a new dataset on emerging market sovereign bonds; tracking the currency of denomination and the residence of investors

"Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset"

bis.org/publ/work1075.… The new dataset gives a comprehensive picture of long-term government bonds, in line with the renewed focus on market/duration risk and the activity of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs)

Follow the link to the dataset and compilation guide

bis.org/publ/work1075.…
Feb 18, 2023 • 22 tweets • 9 min read
Inspired by the debate between @nfergus and @adam_tooze on the current state of globalisation, I devoted my lecture at Columbia this week to take the pulse on global value chains:

"Global value chains under the shadow of Covid"

bis.org/speeches/sp230… First, some background to set the scene

Real exports have grown but so has real GDP; we need to scale trade by the size of the economy, taking account of the different price indices (exports are goods heavy, GDP is services heavy as @BaldwinRE has argued eloquently)
Dec 17, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
"There is a bitter irony in the turmoil currently gripping the crypto universe..."

My op-ed in the FT on the great unravelling of crypto

ft.com/content/76234c… While we survey the wreckage and plot a course for the policy response to rein in the sector, we need to keep in mind some home truths

Crypto operates under the banner of decentralisation, but it is highly centralised in two crucial respects
May 18, 2022 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Will commodity prices tip the global economy into a 1970s-style stagflation?

Today's #BIS_Bulletin weighs the arguments and does some number crunching in search of an answer

A thread:
bis.org/publ/bisbull54… Price rises have affected a broader range of commodities this time round than in the 1970s (for instance, see the yellow bar on industrial metals), but the size of the oil price shock has been much less than the 1973 shock
Apr 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Central banks are picking up the pace in their work on digital currencies, moving from talk to actions

On 9-10 February, I chaired a meeting of deputy governors from 26 EM central banks

Here is a thread on the key lessons, just published

bis.org/publ/bppdf/bis… In the run-up to the meeting, Mexico and India had announced their intention to launch their CBDCs and set the tone toward practical design choices

Here's a summary table from the report; numbers indicating extent of buy-in (1.0 means unanimity) Image
Apr 4, 2022 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Crypto markets have found an outlet in centralized finance, or "DeFi"

Is DeFi the acceptable face of crypto?

Or can central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) do DeFi but without selling coins for speculation?

A thread on a panel I chaired this morning Image One notable development has been the fragmentation of the blockchain universe, with #Ethereum giving up its dominance to newer chains

The chart below shows the percentage of collateral value locked in various chains; #Ethereum had close to 100%; now barely 50% Image
Mar 24, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
A quiet revolution in the monetary system started in November 2020, when Brazil launched its Pix instant payment system

In little over a year, it signed up two-thirds of Brazil's adult population

The latest #BIS_Bulletin tells the amazing story

A thread
bis.org/publ/bisbull52… The trajectory of adoption by users has been phenomenal since the launch of Pix in November 2020
Mar 11, 2022 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
House prices boomed during the Covid recession - a big departure from past recessions

Where house prices go from here will be a key determinant of global activity

A thread from our latest #BIS_Bulletin on the topic

bis.org/publ/bisbull50… First, it's worth stressing how unusual the Covid recession was in terms of house prices

Typically, economic downturns are followed by a moderate fall in house prices lasting about four quarters

This time round, there was not even a temporary dip

Feb 9, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
The financial channel of exchange rates operates through the risk capacity of market participants and shows up in the response of financial conditions to exchange rate movements

This new BIS Working Paper shows that the channel operates for stock returns, too

A thread: First finding:

Dollar-denominated returns tend to be an amplified version of the local currency-denominated returns; both the gains and losses are magnified when converted into dollar returns

Hence the "dollar return multiplier"
Dec 9, 2021 • 26 tweets • 11 min read
The opening seminar for the Indonesian G20 presidency was a good opportunity to take stock of #bottlenecks and #inflation risks

A thread follows

bis.org/speeches/sp211… Supply bottlenecks have grabbed all the headlines recently, but longer-term structural changes brought about by the pandemic (labour markets, especially) are important to understand where we are headed

bis.org/publ/bisbull47…
Nov 21, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Good observations by @EtraAlex

Two further points to bear in mind are (1) counterparty sector (official or private financial, private non-financial) and (2) the distinction between location and nationality

For this, the following BIS data would shed more light

(continued) First, regarding the counterparty sector, the 2020:Q1 surge in cross-border banking flows stands out

Normally, we would expect a sharp retrenchment during stress episodes, but there was instead a surge, as discussed in this #BIS_Bulletin
bis.org/publ/bisbull34…
Nov 17, 2021 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
Thanks to colleagues at LBS for the opportunity to take stock of the decentralisation agenda in digital finance, from #bitcoin to #DeFi

A thread on the key points:

bis.org/speeches/sp211… Blockchain has breathed new life into the idea of money as a substitute for a ledger that keeps score of who owes what to whom

"Money is memory" according to the classic 1998 by Narayana Kocherlakota

minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr…
Nov 11, 2021 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
The inflation surge has brought #bottlenecks under the spotlight

Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward

A short thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull48… Bottlenecks started out as disruptions to supply, but they have morphed into something more

Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping
Oct 18, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
It was a pleasure to moderate this panel on scaling up #blockchains

The session starts at 5:28:50 on the video link below

Here's a short thread on my key takeaways: Decentralization is motivated by the governance benefits - the idea is that the checks and balances of the community as a whole is the best way to safeguard the integrity of the system and avoid capture by a few powerful entities
Jun 25, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Timely outing on Odd Lots with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart to discuss data silos and "walled gardens" in the digital economy

One thought occurred to me after the podcast.

Here's a quick thread. Privacy looms large when CBDCs come up, as digital currencies rely on a ledger of some kind - a record of who owns what, when, and who pays what to whom; see this (tough but fair) interview with @izakaminska and @senoj_erialc I gave to @FTAlphaville
Jun 7, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
The BIS is expanding coverage of its government bonds statistics

A thread follows The BIS Quarterly Review out today has an introductory piece outlining what's new

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
Jan 25, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
Happy to announce the launch of the BIS’s “Dreamcatcher” data visualisation tool with the latest BIS banking statistics:

bis.org/statistics/rpp…

A thread follows Dreamcatcher puts into one package the BIS’s cross-border banking statistics; or more accurately, it gathers the BIS’s locational banking statistics that breaks out the cross-border bank claims according to the residence principle

bis.org/statistics/sta…
Nov 10, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Much can be learned on the payment system and the monetary-fiscal nexus from the rise and fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609 - 1820), one of the first central banks in Europe

Link to my BIS working paper published today:

bis.org/publ/work902.h…

A short thread follows The Bank of Amsterdam started life as a rigid stablecoin, where holders of silver and gold coins delivered them to the Bank, in return for deposits
Aug 14, 2020 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Corporate credit markets decoupled in March; bond issuance boomed but discretionary bank credit stalled

Unequal access to credit between large firms and the rest is the topic of today's #BIS_Bulletin

A thread follows

bis.org/publ/bisbull29… First, some facts:

The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
Jul 23, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Inflation tail risks have risen, mostly to the downside but some also to the upside

Today's #BIS_Bulletin sorts through the cases
bis.org/publ/bisbull28… Phillips curve reasoning carries us a long way: subdued activity increases downside tail risk to inflation; but this is not the only story on inflation
Jul 20, 2020 • 23 tweets • 7 min read
Well done to @GitaGopinath and the team for the timely report and for putting together this superb panel chaired by @SoumayaKeynes; time was too short to explore all the issues, but a couple of the points deserve emphasis

A short thread follows We're accustomed to thinking of the global economy as a collection of "islands", each island being a national GDP area; exchange rates then adjust to bring balance of payments into balance