On his first trip to the US since #COVID19, NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg tells the American public that "a strong NATO is good for Europe & the US…The global balance of power is shifting...we have to stand together. We can't face these challenges alone." #ACFrontPage#NATO2030
"How can we continue to make sure @NATO remains the most successful alliance in history? The key to do that is to continue to change as the world is changing. And at the upcoming NATO summit, we will agree to a forward-looking ambitious agenda. We call it #NATO2030." #ACFrontPage
"@NATO continues to be committed to Afghanistan but in another way than the last two decades, with a big military operation… The military mission is ending, but political support for Afghans will remain with a civilian presence." #NATO2030#ACFrontPage
"The intention was never to stay forever. We have to face the reality that there is a lot of uncertainty...the decision to leave has risks. But the Afghanistan we leave now is very different from the Afghanistan we went into in 2001." #ACFrontPage#NATO2030
"We've implemented the biggest reinforcement to our collective defense since the end of the Cold War...Now we have four combat-ready battle groups in eastern Alliance sates, air policing, increased presence in the Baltic & Black Seas & increased readiness." #ACFrontPage#NATO2030
"With Russia, we have to be strong but firm but at the same time, we also have to strive for dialogue with Russia to work on issues like arms control. We have a standing invitation for Russia to join NATO-Russia Council." NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg tells #ACFrontPage. #NATO2030
On Belarus, @jensstoltenberg says, "@NATO allies condemned Belarus's actions...and sends a message to anyone who considers doing something similar that international norms need to be respected." #ACFrontPage#NATO2030
At #ACFrontPage, @NATO SecGen says "#NATO2030 is about how we can respond to a more competitive world, including the security consequences of Russia and China."
"We have decided that a cyber attack can trigger Article 5...It doesn't matter if an attack is kinetic or cyber, we will assess as allies when it meets the threshold...and it sends a message that we are cyber allies." @jensstoltenberg at #ACFrontPage#NATO2030
"Climate change matters for our security because it's a crisis multiplier...that affects our security...NATO should be the main platform for addressing the security challenges caused by climate change." #NATO2030#ACFrontPage with @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg
"@NATO allies are increasingly committing to net-zero emissions, meaning we also need to reduce emissions from military operations, to find ways to reconcile operational effectiveness with reducing emissions." #NATO2030#ACFrontPage
"NATO has 5 arctic nation allies & has always been in the arctic. The melting of the ice, combined with increased Russian military aggression, increases the importance of the Arctic. All of this matters for our security, so @NATO is increasing its focus." #NATO2030#ACFrontPage
"We have now had 7 consecutive years of increased spending across Europe & Canada...We have some work to do, but part of the #NATO2030 agenda is to invest more together as a force multiplier, to spend not only more but better, together." #ACFrontPage
What can we expect from a Trump 2.0 foreign policy? In defense and security policy, we can anticipate a return of a “peace through strength” approach. This will mean big investments in US defense capabilities to strengthen deterrence and use force decisively if deterrence fails. Trump will rightly ask allies to contribute more to ensure US alliances in Europe and Asia have the capabilities they need.
In economic policy, we can expect a focus on fair and reciprocal trade, prioritizing addressing China’s unfair trading practices, and an unleashing of the United States’ domestic energy potential. Values will center around an “America first, but not alone” orientation that will ensure that US global engagement benefits the peace, prosperity, and freedom of the American people and, in so doing, the broader free world.
— @MatthewKroenig is vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s @ACScowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
Global trade
What will the Trump administration do about global trade? This is the thirty-trillion-dollar question. It was what every finance minister and central bank governor at the recent International Monetary Fund-World Bank Annual Meetings wanted to chat about privately. Here’s what we know.
The important question about Trump and trade is: Will he do what he says he will do on tariffs? That answer is more likely yes than no, but it will not happen overnight. Trump’s trade views were shaped in the 1980s during Japan’s rapid economic growth. He views trade in binary terms, with bilateral imbalances the key determinant of whether a policy is succeeding or not. The first step in his trade policy will be, somewhat surprisingly, to try and revise the Phase 1 trade deal with China that he brokered at the end of his first term. The deal was largely judged a failure since China didn’t live up to any of its commitments, but the excuse given is that the pandemic prevented what would have been a successful first step. That’s more likely initially than a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports.
Once he tries to revive (or, as Trump trade people say, “finally enforce”) the China trade deal, Trump will turn his attention to the European Union. Here there will be a deep divide, and Trump will seek reciprocal tariffs on a range of products—many of which he will be able to impose unilaterally. His blanket tariff promise of 10 percent seems unlikely in the near term, but instead a scattershot of specific tariffs will be a signal to countries—both allies and adversaries—that this is just the beginning. The likely response will be a tit-for-tat escalation that will be inflationary in the United States and for the global economy. While the Trump economic team disputes this, citing the fact that Trump’s first term didn’t produce inflationary results, the size and scale of what is being proposed now is vastly different.
— @joshualipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s @ACGeoEcon Center and a former adviser to the International Monetary Fund.
@AmbDanFried “In psychological terms, bringing the war home to Russia has allowed Ukraine to strike a powerful blow against enemy morale,” writes Peter Dickinson (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag). atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
🧵 Since retaking Afghanistan, the Taliban has issued decrees to systematically oppress women and girls.
In this audio thread compiled by @SHalaimzai, @Metra_Mehran, and @mari_thero, #AfghanWomen narrate their ordeal under gender apartheid in Afghanistan:bit.ly/3Tt3JZ2
“Women are ordered to stay indoors because Taliban soldiers are not trained to respect women.” #AfghanWomen #GenderApartheid 🎧⬇️
“We believed that the international community was with us, that they wouldn’t give away our hard work, our rights. I feel embarrassed for thinking that now.” #AfghanWomen #GenderApartheid 🎧⬇️
The decision puts other states offering support to Israel on notice, writes @SLPJustice’s @Celeste_Kmiotek.
“Should the ICJ determine that Israel is committing genocide, the states that have aided Israel could also face cases before the ICJ.” atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
@SLPJustice @Celeste_Kmiotek “Today’s decision is an important blow to the argument advanced by Israel’s critics that death and destruction in Gaza are sufficient to establish a violation of the Genocide Convention,” says @ACMideast’s @TomWarrickAC. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
Russia's war on Ukraine is also a war on global food security. A new issue brief by @anders_aslund breaks down how Ukraine's global granary has been stolen and suppressed by a Russian blockade on the Black Sea, and its impact on the global food crisis. atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-resea…
🇺🇸@RepMikeQuigley breaks down the global impact Russia's actions have had on food supplies and prices, and voices support for the recommendation that an international coalition ensures Ukraine's ports are open for critical shipping.
Since February, Russian ships have blockaded and mined Ukraine's ports and choked off international shipping. This means that Ukraine, one of the world's largest suppliers of grain and wheat, can't get its goods to market.
❝Russia has attacked not just us, not just our land, not just our cities, it went on a brutal offensive against our values, against our right to live freely in our own country, against our national dreams. Just like the same dreams you Americans have.❞ – @ZelenskyyUa
❝This is a terror that Europe has not seen for 80 years… Is this a lot to ask for to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine to save people? Is this too much to ask? If this is too much to ask, we offer an alternative. You know what kind of defense systems we need.❞ – @ZelenskyyUa
❝I have a dream. These words are known to each of you today, I can say I have a need. I need to protect our sky. I need your decision. Your help…Ukraine is grateful to the United States for its overwhelming support…However, I call on you to do more.❞ – @ZelenskyyUa