Thread by @althecat

Today's #EuropeBigWet Update.

The main source of water into the European zone remains a flow of water across the Sahara north, now on a broad front bringing rain along a 1700km wide front from France to the Aegean.

Notably the unusual circulation of thunderstorms north of the Black Sea has grown to 2000kms wide and now extends all the way to the Baltic. This system appeared with the #WesternSaharaPlume and appears to be fed by it.

This animation from @Meteoblue shows an apparently connected outflow heading East across northern Russia.

Here you see the main Atlantic cloud mass has arrived in the West of Ireland. Ahead of this there is now a band of moisture running from the Pyrenees up to Norway.

The advancing Atlantic low and the low circulation in the east are now squeezing a high centered over the UK.

Because the air is wet it has greater inertia and this I presume explains things moving so slowly. These weather maps (Midnight MLSP plots over 4 days) show the high eventually being divided and moving its center south over France (on Thursday).

These are the corresponding precipitable water maps at the same intervals. The water doesn't seem to care that much about the pressure differentials.

This animation runs from tomorrow morning (Tuesday 8th June) through to Saturday (12th June) midday. Notably the low north of the Black Sea remains in place till Friday (11th June).

Three more satellite images from this morning. The first shows the activity over over the Mediterranean. Second, the cloud action of North East Europe and finally a wide view of the full scene.

It looks as if this 2nd phase of #EuropeBigWet will end on the 12th, when the low located north of the Black Sea will finally relent and dissolve, allowing the a more active scenario to begin.

These final 6-Day rainfall forecasts show rainfall between now and Saturday midnight.

/ENDS

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