Hard to explain it to people: since 2002 I've been working flat out, as hard as a human can, to pre-position food, shelter, housing, and water for the hundreds of millions of people that climate change inevitably displaces later this century.

Even @mattereum serves this cause.
Even now people are in super deep denial about how hard climate change is going to hit the world. They're still thinking "songbirds migrate away" not "a holocaust of global famine that hits subsistence farmers hardest of all."

CO2 is still through the roof. Hard landing approach
myhopeforthe.world lays out the plan: housing, then water purification, cooking. Right now, in the background, I'm working on refugee clothing and beds. Cooking I figured out mostly years back. Housing, the hexayurt, thrives. Resiliencemaps.org is totally transformative
Where does @Mattereum fit in? That's the aid tracking solution: Asset Passport the aid supply chain, and *prove* that people will get what they need to survive out of the aid system: no gaps, and no slack! Lives are at stake.

Let me tell you something that you aren't gonna like.
This long project has no friends.

Nobody, and I mean *nobody* gives a fuck about long term planning for massive numbers of refugees. Not aid agencies, not the UN, not (really) the military. You say "in 20 years..." and people stop listening.

And there's some active sabotage too
This climate genocide thing is no joke: almost everybody that dies from climate change will be brown or black people from hot, poor countries.

They caused very climate change, mostly too poor to afford much fossil fuel use: innocent victims, killed by a plenty they never reached
There is no hope for policy change to avert this disaster: the voters in democracies will not vote for the necessary changes, and the autocracies are all running in fear from their citizen's potential for revolution in the face of climate change and the cost of poverty.
We are going to slam into this fucking thing basically full force with our foot still on the carbon pedal. Global net zero will arrive so much too late, it's going to look like a Seinfeld sketch. It's going to look like US Covid statistics.

It's going to be a *car crash* people.
We'll get the solar panels and clean meat and all the rest of it, this huge technological push towards zero carbon better living circumstance, *after* we've locked in a genuinely horrific scenario for most poor people, forced to survive on land that stopped working last drought.
Here's the key number to watch: CO2 per dollar of GDP. Look at this carefully: data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.A…

The line needs to hit zero *now* and, ideally, go negative. That's what "regenerative economy" means: economic activity which soaks up CO2 changes the climate back.

0 by 2050?
The current transformation of data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.A… is *so slow* that there is basically zero chance we are going to avoid catastrophic warming. How catastrophic?

It'll hit the poorest hardest. Everything after that is a question for the scientists. But *bad*. Really bad.
So, understand: cheaper solar means we will *inevitably* decarbonize the economy (see Ramez Naam). Batteries too. But it's 99% likely too late to prevent a genocide-level blow for the poor people of color, living on farms, growing most of their own food.

If you are a subsistence farmer, you are 100% dependent on the rain and the seasons coming on time: you have to plant in spring, and cold after spring starts kills your crops. Rain, rain must fall when it usually does or the crops die in the fields.

They didn't cause the warming
And they are going to get hit *so* hard in most scenarios. They're just going to get hammered.

Of course it won't just be them: winter grid failures due to superstorms could be quite unpleasant in America, never mind fires. But it's the famine caused by shifting rainfall I fear.
You say "but what can we do?" and I'll tell you this: prepare for a gigantic humanitarian evacuation of entire countries where the rain no longer falls: hundreds of millions of people on the move

Migration on a scale never before seen or imagined, a Biblical event. Already begun
But we do get the technology to decarbonize the global economy pretty quickly. No doubt that coal, oil etc. are obsolete and being made uneconomic very fast by the ultra cheap solar panels. But we still need to manage other resource use to get to true efficiency.

Mixed scenario.
The biggest single win left on the table is clean meat: get the animals OUT of agriculture, and turn over most of the land which currently goes to livestock back to forest.

Plant things to soak carbon everywhere cows were, broadly speaking. Also a lot of food.

Clean meat RULES.
This is not a counsel of "no hope" - the faster we stop burning coal, oil and gas, the fewer people die.

The better we are at rehousing, and emergency food logistics, the fewer people die.

There's no doubt that solar etc. win in the end: the grid will be green.

But tough times
Our behavior now controls how bad the climate genocide event is. It doesn't have to kill a single person.

But from where we are now, every single step forwards sustainability is saving someone's life.

it's about handling the terrible climate overshoot, and that starts with us.

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More from @leashless

2 Jun
So we've built it. @Mattereum I mean. Stage one is basically done: we've got customers selling NFTs on @OpenSea, backed by physical items, and new people are coming on board slowly but steadily. It is a business.

Constant pressure to issue the token and to THE BIG ICO like 2018.
A lot of the other companies in the NFT space have raised *extremely* large amounts of money on very, very thin product plans. We recognise bubble thinking. I'm not 100% sure the "just take the money" approach produces much working product in the long run, but people do their way
What we're planning on doing is this: we're going to keep putting great physical assets on chain until the NFT space wakes up and says "oh my god this is *exactly* how the blockchain takes over the world: ACTUAL GOODS AND SERVICES!"

And at that point, fundraising will be easy.
Read 33 tweets
31 May
For 20 years, I've only measured myself against actually saving the world.

Wasn't that way before 2001. It just clicked one day ("the paperwork" - if you know that story).

It just dawned on me how odd this is, and how different my life would be if many more people did it too.
I am right royally tired of people refusing to do the simple first principles math:

[sustainable harvest of the earth each year] divided by [eight billion people]

Now we design a lifestyle which works within, say, 2/3 of that limit so there is room for planetary regeneration.
Every single idiot who talks about "regenerative community" or "circular economy" without CALCULATING WHAT THE NATURAL RESOURCE BUDGET IS FIRST is living in a total dreamworld.

Numbers are everything in sustainability. Do the math or get out of the way: we need plans not fables.
Read 4 tweets
27 May
Spent a bit of time yesterday arguing with obnoxious bitcoiners. I learned a few things.

1) all their schooling on bitcoin has been propaganda

2) they're psychologically *unrecognisable* compared to crypto people 5 years ago

It's a totally new kind of person, with a new story.
What's interesting about that is the sheer cultic emotional intensity that bitcoin has attracted. These people are nuts!

All they know is that bitcoin wins, and anybody who says different is THE ENEMY.

But *they do not even know what bitcoin is* - "cap theorem?" "byzantine?"
And this, this is super dangerous: to have a cult loyalty to something you do not truly understand makes one into a monster. There's simply no other way to defend a thing you don't know, other than blind force and yelling.

This is going to have to be corrected: teach the people.
Read 8 tweets
23 May
I don't normally discuss the price of crypto.

I need to discuss the price of crypto.

Depending on how response is to this thread, I may write a longer-form piece for the @Mattereum blog tomorrow, so lets see how it goes.

A mix of hard truths and bright horizons. Here goes.
So I joined the story way off to the left of this graph. Two years to the left of it. Bitcoin was $500 or so in 2014.

This is *prehistory*. At the time, I was working in a military think tank on managing natural disasters and cyber risk. files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/Defense_… from those days.
Now, why does a medium-grade defense intellectual quit to go into crypto. The short answer is "I needed a job that paid better than think tanks" but why did I take *that* job, with the Ethereum Foundation? blog.ethereum.org/2015/03/03/eth…

The answer is, I wanted to change the world.
Read 57 tweets
11 May
Urgh. So many ducks to get in rows. So much to do, so much I would have done differently. Still butting up against capacity limits of various kinds. But people are starting to get it, starting to grasp what the @Mattereum game plan really is.

That #AhaMoment "any physical thing"
It's funny watching the penny drop for people: it starts with "ok, so the stuff is in a vault" followed by "wait... how do I know what's in the vault is real? I can't even inspect it!"

Well, that's right. And you've already paid in crypto, so you can't get the money back. Right?
Once people get that insight, "oh you have to prove what is in the vault!" everything else pops into place neatly. One short socratic dialogue later, the wonder is clearly perceived: "the NFT is a financial instrument which may happen to contain a physical item, plus arbitration"
Read 8 tweets
22 Feb
I am about to tell you clearly and plainly, in four-ish tweets, what #metamodernism is and how to fix it.

This article and the ones linked from it is a fair summary of the critical state of play. Let us begin.

1) metamodernism is a philosophical stance with political aspects.
2) metamodernism falsely claims all the action is in the space between *modernism and **post-modernism.

* myth of progress
** myth, because progress towards what?

Progress requires goals. Pomo argues successfully there are no clearly defined goals without totalitarian aspects.
3) the “goal crisis” causes political shattering among the deep readers. A similar crisis to the 1950s aeon.co/ideas/how-camu… related to nihilism and existentialism: “now that we are free, what do I do?”

In our times, this goalless shattering results in intersectional politics.
Read 8 tweets

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