Modelling is very tricky right now. It's very difficult to predict the future given uncertainty about transmission of the delta variant, the impact of behaviour changes and levels of population immunity. I'm not a modelIer so here are some differing views (1)
The original Warwick model from the government SPI(M) committee gave a very pessimistic view of the impact of a 40% increase in transmission on hospital admissions...and many think the increase is now 70%. But they are currently revising their model. (2) 
This latest thread from mathematician James Ward is interesting and expresses uncertainties clearly.
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569?s=20(3)
The UCL Friston model is more optimistic. Friston was criticised last November for over-optimism before the Kent variant exploded. But his dynamic model constantly updates projections based on mitigation behaviour data. fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/f… (4)
He estimates UK R value to be 1.22 currently, efficacy of vaccination 85%, R0 of delta variant at 6.3, + daily deaths to peak at 40 per day over the summer. He bases this on a 'gentle unlocking' +final lift of restrictions Sept 8. Effective population immunity arrives Oct 8. (5)
Adam Kucharski explains clearly why high vaccine coverage doesn't remove the risk of a surge in hospitalisations.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1401245718036234245?s=20(6)
Tom Wenseleers explains in this thread why the delta variant, in line with evolutionary theory, is more likely to land people in hospital
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1401819720903442433?s=20(7)
We need to watch the data carefully in the next two weeks. Remember WHO advice: "Act fast, have no regrets". I just wish local public health protection teams had the resources they need + TTI was not outsourced to people who don't understand effective isolation.(8)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
