Our thoughts and prayers are with all our colleagues and friends in India, Bangladesh and Nepal right now. This catastrophe means vaccine production MUST expand beyond the few companies who hold patents. Otherwise many MILLIONS of people across the world will die.
Covax is not enough. It is at the mercy of governments and big Pharma.They are undermining it. And World Bank loans to countries to acquire vaccines at inflated prices are stopping Covax procurement from the same companies!
World leaders have had a year to act, but done nothing on a patent waiver. Vaccines, oxygen, ventilators are a public good. They should not be provided through the highest bidders and black markets.
Where is big business? Why are philanthropists saying nothing? Polio vaccine was given to the world in 1959. Why not Covid vaccine? If 25% of India becomes infected, and the mortality rate is 2%, we shall see almost six million dead. To defend free markets??
Jonas Salk in 1955 was asked who owned the polio patent. “Well, the people, I would say,” said Salk, given that charity had funded the vaccine’s research and field testing. “There is no patent. Could you patent the sun?”

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More from @globalhlthtwit

25 Apr
Let us be clear on ten reasons why the Barrington group letter to...er... the Daily Express is profoundly wrong.express.co.uk/life-style/hea…
1. They state confidently "the vaccine programme will almost totally eliminate deaths and hospitalisations from Covid-19". Yet half the UK have not yet been vaccinated, we don't know how long immunity lasts, +Brazil and India show COVID can surge again in 'immune populations'.
2. This didn't age well did it....
Read 12 tweets
19 Apr
The European Super League appears to have been backed with $6 billion debt financing from JP Morgan Bank. Says it all...
This is corruption pure and simple. Stealing the heritage and the rules of football from the club fans.
I hope Klopp, Tuchel, Arteta, Guardiola and Solsjaer will alos express their displeasure and resign. This is about defending the integrity of football.
Read 4 tweets
19 Apr
I respect Susan Hopkins but this troubles me. Watch from 37.04 when she is asked on isolation. She says people when contacted are already isolating and that if people have got a test the vast majority do the right thing. But the evidence is different (1) bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod…
1. No. of contacts for each COVID-19 case is 17 per case in Taiwan, 2 in the United Kingdom.
2. China had 1 LOCAL contact tracer per 1200 population in Wuhan. UK has less than one per 10,000.
3. Successful countries test contacts and use apps to monitor isolation. We don't. (2)
4. The CORSAIR study showed self-reported adherence to test, trace and isolate behaviours was very low (selfisolation) 18.2%, 95% CI 16.4% to 19.9%. gov.uk/government/pub… (3)
Read 8 tweets
14 Apr
Remember the global financial crash? Packaged mortgage securities? The Big Short? This time the problem may be hedge funds borrowing to gamble on stocks, using the same stocks as securities.(1)
The hedge fund industry has borrowed a reported $814 billion in the past year, to gamble on stocks, a 49 per cent increase since Feb 2020. The true figure is likely much higher, into trillions. (2)
Gambling on stocks using borrowed money pushes up share prices which can then be sold. But some hedge funds may get the timing wrong, leading to big losses if the market smells a rat. This is what happened with Archegos, a relatively small family hedge fund. (3)
Read 9 tweets
8 Apr
Covid UK: Different models make different assumptions. 'Clearly, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty about these long-term forecasts as indicated by the wide credible intervals. Part of this uncertainty is due to the fluctuations in transmission risk and mobility.' (1)
Here is the LSHTM model for a large surge in hospitalisations in September 2021 (2)
Here is the Imperial model for hospital admissions. Looks a bit worse, with an earlier even higher peak under the worst case scenario (3)
Read 9 tweets
5 Apr
Vaccines alone will not control the pandemic. Isolation of cases and their contacts is critical as cases fall. (1) theguardian.com/global-develop…
Sir Patrick says they got it right a yr ago when they predicted a 2nd + 3rd wave. But he + SAGE on Mar 16 2020 wrote that they were 'unanimous' that China and Asian states wd face a massive second wave. They didn’t. Why? Bec they suppress outbreaks rapidly w trace +isolation. (2)
Two weeks ago Sir Patrick agreed test, trace and isolation would be critical as cases fall. Yet no mention again today of our leaky programme - test results delayed, contacts missed, isolation not monitored, Tories on TV saying £500 'encourages people to be infected'. (3)
Read 4 tweets

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