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Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
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8 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I though this was a really interesting point. A lot of the jobs (ie, servers) that are trying to hire right now are *especially* unpleasant when they are short staffed.
Good excuse to post the opening from Bowles' Microeconomics - which talks about a similar coordination problem in farming. Image
Implications?

1.) This can slow down rejoining the labor force (ie, there is a person n who won't get a job until n-1 person so).

2.) It *might* be possible to create "Schelling Points".
*does, not "so"

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Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
10 May
There's a pretty tight fit between "% schools closed" and the employment-population ratio.

One thing that is especially interesting to me is that April, instead of being a weird outlier, is right on the line of best fit.
The outliers are mostly summer months (which makes a lot of sense). Here's the graph if you drop them.

R^2 is 0.79 in the first graph, 0.93 in the second.
Obviously this isn't necessarily a causal story - both of these will be caused by what's happening in the pandemic itself.
Read 4 tweets
Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
16 Mar
Too Online.

Don't let it happen to you.
(referring to the "many countries have issued monthly checks" claim)
I think a better understanding of how the US response differs from other countries leads to different policy implications.

For example, reforming the UI system so it is easier for people to access benefits.
Read 4 tweets
Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
2 Mar
I never understand this argument.

1.) There are psycho-social benefits to work beyond a paycheck.
2.) Therefore we should design anti-poverty programs to push people into work

I'd draw the exact opposite conclusion. If people want to work we do not *need* to push them to do it! Image
The only thing that makes sense to me is that people believe that there are psycho-social benefits to work, but poor people are *unaware* of them.

I don't think that makes much sense.
Some folks are pointing out that another possibility is that people are present-biased, and may not be willing to pay the sort term costs of working, even if the long-term benefits are strong.
Read 6 tweets
Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
5 Feb
I'm going to disagree with Ezra here.

Saying "incentives matter" doesn't have to imply anything negative about people living in poverty. In general, the idea that people are very sharp and goal-oriented (which is what I generally understand 'incentives matter' to mean) is good.
That said, I think this language is often sort of crudely appropriated and used in a misleading way.
This is particularly the case with discussions of welfare reform, where people use this kind of language to make the exact opposite claim that "incentives matter" should tell us.
Read 7 tweets
Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
5 Feb
A big problem with #2 is that the aggregate data is messy enough that it is easy to paint any picture you want. Was 1990-era increases in labor participation due to:

1- Continued secular trends
2- Welfare reform
3- A hot business cycle
4- EITC expansion

Hard to disaggregate!
#1 helps us. For example, to the extent that higher LFPR was driven by welfare reform, you'd expect to see similar effects from similar policies.
A good example is state-level work requirements for SNAP or Medicaid, which are best on the same theory as TANF (but have well defined control).
Read 9 tweets
Matt Darling 🌐💸🌇 Profile picture
4 Feb
This is a good example of a failure to use economic reasoning.

Who cares if families are "enabled" to not work? People make labor force entry decisions at the margin.
No one makes, say, $15k a year and decides "Hey, this is barely sustainable. Let's just coast here for a while."
(and a $300/month benefit is *substantially* less than that!)
Read 6 tweets

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