Thread by @JoshRudes

The key to seeing whether Biden stands up to Putin from a position of strength won't be gleaned from next Wednesday's summit itself.

It'll be whether this next week succeeds at sending Biden into Geneva at the head of a strong, productive, and reunited transatlantic alliance. 🧵

When facing down Putin behind closed doors and standing next to him afterward, it's safe to assume that Biden won't take the Kremlin's side against America's own intelligence community or get duped into signing up for an "impenetrable Cyber Security unit" (whatever that meant).

Rather, the key is whether Biden's engagements w/ allies in England & Belgium start delivering results showing that democracies are more capable than autocracies at meeting challenges and are sufficiently united to stand together against modern threats. Seven questions stand out:

1⃣ Will the G7 announce an ambitious multilateral effort to fight the pandemic around the world, with vaccines, supply chains, and preparations for future outbreaks?

2⃣ Will the G7 unreservedly endorse a global minimum tax, while other countries start expressing support in anticipation of a deal at the G20 summit in October?

3⃣ Will Germany announce support for a very strong package of energy policies and other measures to protect Eastern Europe from vulnerabilities attending Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline?

4⃣ Will the first EU summit since 2014 demonstrate returning confidence to stand together with and follow the lead of the United States, from joint actions against autocratic threats to new global economic rules to protect health and the climate?

5⃣ Will the communique from the first NATO summit since 2018 make announcements about how the alliance is improving its capacity to confront non-military threat vectors such as cyber and growing threat actors like China?

6⃣ Will Biden's meetings with the leaders of Britain, Turkey, Belgium, and Switzerland showcase renewed unity with a broader ambit of allies than Russia has ever sustained?

7⃣ Will all these multilateral grouping and bilateral allies clearly stand together with the United States against Russia’s aggressive behavior, from harboring hackers and attempting assassinations to menacing Ukraine?

What scares Vladimir Putin the most is the prospect of democracies delivering results for their people and standing together as the largest economic and military bloc the world has ever seen, underpinned by shared values that resonate with all peoples.

Driven by his own zero-sum instincts and perceived domestic political needs, Putin will never want to let predictability and stability govern the Kremlin's relationship with Washington.

The question's whether Putin nevertheless walks away from this crucial diplomatic week feeling constrained by a Western alliance that's healing its internal divisions, producing outcomes to anchor democratic legitimacy, & prepared to act together against autocratic aggression. 🔚