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15 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The key to whether this will impose any real costs is whether the ~20 entities were selected because of their direct involvement in malign activity (generally not costly) or because they’re owned by Kremlin-connected oligarchs (can be costly if they have international ties).
Here are four examples of entities that could be costly, although they could also risk being too costly to be sustained (like Rusal), so Treasury, State, and others would have to vet their economic exposures and diplomatic considerations carefully. ⬇️
Major update: WSJ reports that the new Russia sanctions will include sovereign debt. Will have to see the details (like whether new debt can be bought on the open market), but that could be calibrated impose a real and manageable cost, could be a good move.wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
New thread on what’s coming today and which details matter most. ⬇️

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More from @JoshRudes

Josh Rudolph Profile picture
15 Apr
Two new sets of Russia sanctions are reportedly coming today:

1⃣ Designations of 20-30 entities (plus a dozen individuals and 10 PNGs)

2⃣ Executive order barring US financials from buying ruble sovereign debt after June 14

In both cases, the severity depends on the details. 🧵
Bloomberg says the designations hit "about dozen individuals, including gov't/intel officials, and roughly 20 entities ... The US is also expected to expel as many as 10 Russian officials/diplomats." CBS says it's "more than 30 Russian entities" & 10 PNGs. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
More important than the number is whether the 20-30 entities are obscure and isolated entities that directly perpetrated the malign activity (usually not costly) or Kremlin-tied companies with international supply chains and financing (could be costly). ⬇️
Read 27 tweets
Josh Rudolph Profile picture
14 Apr
Thank you @freedomhouse, @CSIS, and @McCainInstitute, for citing our work at @SecureDemocracy on #CovertForeignMoney to explain why elections need defending in your excellent new report on democracy and authoritarianism!
The fact that #CovertForeignMoney is now viewed as a top vector of interference shows how far we've come in seeing the financial threat, like how we realized in 2017-2018 that it wasn't just "hacking" but also social media disinfo. Here's our full report. securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/covert-foreign…
The European Parliament is halfway through an 18-month process of using our research on #CovertForeignMoney as the basis for policy reforms & common EU standards to close all of the loopholes through which foreign donors covertly fund political activities. europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Rudolph Profile picture
13 Apr
Solid Russia sanctions options by @AmbDanFried & @brianoftoole, who name 10 companies starting with Gazprom, Rosneft, & VTB.

I'd emphasize a point I learned from Dan & @offspring about escalatory options & activity buckets: You gotta keep 'em separated. 🧵atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
Right now the Kremlin appears to be to be escalating against two victims at once: Ukraine and Navalny. In keeping his options open, Putin may be hoping he will have an opportunity to take out one victim and then avoid severe sanctions by backing down on the other.
The way to disabuse Putin of that notion is to clarify—together with credible signals from allies—that each Kremlin behavior will be treated separately as a standalone matter, and that the West has strong options ready to ratchet up sanctions in response to each situation.
Read 7 tweets
Josh Rudolph Profile picture
16 Feb
This is a fantastic interview with Gary Kalman, who explains how beneficial ownership reform got done and says the top priority on the US anticorruption agenda is now regulating gatekeepers like lawyers, accountants, real estate agents, private equity, etc.soundcloud.com/kickback-gap/4…
Gary's absolutely right: @USTreasury has the authority to regulate many such sectors, and the easiest place to start is to immediately finalize the rule proposed at the end of the Obama admin. to regulate private equity & hedge funds. It's ready to go! ➡️ fincen.gov/sites/default/…
After that, @USTreasury should revoke the regs pictured below that have been around for two decades granting "temporary exemptions" to ten important sectors, from real estate professionals to sellers of yachts and airplanes.
Read 5 tweets
Josh Rudolph Profile picture
22 Dec 20
The Biden White House will seek to counter kleptocracy. Congress is outlawing anonymous shell companies.

Now @USTreasury should plan to root out dirty money and take on oligarchs.

Our new report proposes a sweeping @USTreasury anti-corruption strategy. 🧵securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/treasurys-war-…
With kleptocrats deploying strategic corruption & malign finance abroad while voters are angry about corruption & inequality at home, anti-corruption offers a historic chance to unify foreign and domestic policy. Nobody gets this better than @jakejsullivan.politico.com/news/2020/11/2…
Biden will make fighting corruption a top priority, pledging that the US commitment at his Summit for Democracy will be a "presidential policy directive that establishes combating corruption as a core national security interest & democratic responsibility."foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Read 14 tweets
Josh Rudolph Profile picture
10 Nov 20
I see lots of reassuring advice to ignore Trump's lies about the election because he'll be gone in 71 days.

Conspiracy theories about a 2010 plane crash that killed a Polish president offer a darker warning: A big lie about a president's fall can permanently contort democracy.🧵
In April 2010, Polish President Lech Kaczyński died when the airplane carrying him went down near the Russian city of Smolensk in what turned out to be a failed attempt to save time by landing on a foggy airstrip in a dark forest.
Initially, Lech Kaczyński’s twin brother, Jarosław, seemed to accept that the crash was an accident caused by a faulty old airplane. But after investigations showed the plane was fine, Jarosław turned to baseless conspiracies about sinister plotting by foreign & domestic enemies.
Read 13 tweets

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