TLDR: MSTR offering today is a lesson in getting PRIMED. Once the 2025 converts go out of the money (which they will), the notes will drop from 135 now to ~70 as they will be forced to price as a zero coupon with a ~7% rate. This is the easiest short in the world.
Math: Current MSTR share price implies $53k BTC price. The conversion on the 2025s implies a $48k BTC price. If the conversion is not in the money, those notes will price as an (almost) zero coupon bond with a ~5% yield. That is 40% down from its current price. 
*Not investment advice* (most of us can't short converts anyway)
For a neutral trade, you could short / buy puts on $MSTR paired with long BTC to squeeze the arbitrage.
For directional exposure deep OTM puts could print on further BTC breakdown
For a neutral trade, you could short / buy puts on $MSTR paired with long BTC to squeeze the arbitrage.
For directional exposure deep OTM puts could print on further BTC breakdown
Counter arguments:
- BTC may rally / squeezers may squeeze
- Converts also give you a 5yr BTC call at $48k which is worth something
- BTC may rally / squeezers may squeeze
- Converts also give you a 5yr BTC call at $48k which is worth something
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