At this rate, confirmed cases will be running at 8-12k per day on "decision day" of 14 June. If we do nothing, they will be at 13-19k on 21 June. If we do not unlock further then, they will hit 21-30k the week after. And if we DO unlock further....? 😳
What are we waiting for?
And if you're hoping the vaccines will save us, you need to know 1) well under half the UK population has had two doses; 2) one dose gives MUCH less protection against the Delta variant; and 3) the Delta variant is much more infectious, and more likely to trigger serious illness.
(NB numbers revised from earlier tweet due to calendar error on my part. And, as always, they are rule of thumb.)

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More from @DMinghella

4 Jun
In recent days I've noticed the BBC improving its game in clearly, and now properly, quoting vaccination numbers as proportions of the whole (or just adult) population. Thanks. Now how about quoting total deaths using the full ONS death-certificate number (152,183)?
Not quoting the full number of Covid deaths, apart from being extraordinary propaganda, insults the dead and their bereaved families. And it insults your intelligence and mine. I don't know why we put up with it.
Ask yourself which number YOU want to know: the one on the left, or the one on the right? ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
1 Jun
Born in '21, and on 21 June, my Dad, Edward, will be 100 years old in 21 days' time. I thought I'd write 21 things about him between now and then.
/1 Private Edward Minghella, R...
10 Jan, 1940. Edward was alone on fire duty outside Portsmouth's Guildhall when the Luftwaffe bombed it to smithereens. He tried, but, equipped only with a broom, there was nothing he could do. Eighty years on, you can still see the fear in his eyes when he remembers that day.
/2 Churchill surveys the ruins...
Dad was born in Glasgow, but the family moved to Paris where his father, Antonio, had work as an electrician. Sadly Antonio died of a mysterious fever when Edward was only five, leaving his widow with four mouths to feed and no breadwinner.
Read 27 tweets
29 May
Some junior folk in my office arranged for a brilliant £200k freebie for me to fix up my pad (no crappy £30k annual grant for me) and then, when that fund didn't work out, they forgot to mention it and watched me carry on spending the £200k! Amazing eh? Can't get the staff.
And honestly, I was so busy personally vaccinating people at that time that, as the golden rolls of wallpaper went up around me, and my world became a whirlwind of garish pattern, it never occurred to me to double-check that it was still all free and now it turns out it wasn't!
Can you imagine? It's well known I'm short of cash. And who in their right mind would want GOLD wallpaper if they were having to pay for it themselves?
Read 4 tweets
26 May
FFS! BBC News at it again. 3pm headlines on Radio 4: "blood tests show 75% of people have antibodies". Absolutely not. The figures were for adults. They *keep* quoting stats which exclude children from the population, making the numberd sound misleadingly reassuring.
I expect better from BBC, but to be fair to them, ONS hides this as note 6 in its dataset: "The England population used in this analysis relates to the community population aged 16 years and over. It is not the same as the total population of England..."
Read 4 tweets
21 May
OMG BBC News at Ten just said 37.5 million first doses meant 71.2% "of the population" had been given a dose. The population of the UK is circa 68.2m, so that number represents 55%.
They meant the *adult* population I suppose, but they made the same horrendous mistake twice.
And by the way, if 55% of the population have had 1 or 2 doses, then 45% have had none.

Doesn't sound quite so good that way round, does it?
If you're looking for a number close to 70%, it's this: 68% of the population have had either only the first dose, or nothing. Herd immunity is further away than BBC News would have you believe.
Read 4 tweets
25 Apr
A non-binding referendum turned out to be absolutely binding.
A non-binding referendum turned out to be absolutely binding, and set in a tablet of stone - and to question it became traitorous heresy.
A non-binding referendum offering dramatic constitutional change - and disruption to a total population of half a billion people - was authorised without any requirement for a supermajority, and nevertheless turned out to be absolutely binding.
Read 30 tweets

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