There were always only 2 places to carry out SPS checks or any other formalities.

EU's suggestion that checks can take place between ROI and the rest of the EU shows how serious the EU is about protecting its market.


Indeed ROI would be "paying the price" for ensuring there is no border between north and south.

I'm not sure what the tangible impact would be on trade between ROI/EU but any costs and delays would now be for the EU MS to absorb. Significant transfer of responsibility here.

And difficult to imagine this being introduced without any further consequences for the UK as it would normalise UK's unwillingness to implement the Protocol. A document the UK:
✅signed and
✅promoted domestically as a massive success.


This would have serious consequences for the UK-EU relationship and make any future disputes more difficult to resolve - the UK would expect the EU to budge when pushed into a difficult situation, compromising the integrity of its own market.

Which is why I think this scenario is much more likely 👇. The leak as a perfectly timed, strategic move to influence ROI before today's talk.


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More from @AnnaJerzewska

8 Jun
Turns out the supplementary customs declarations due this month (from this month onwards) are also a problem for the customs industry. Risk of a backlog.

/1 Image
Traders unprepared and often unaware of the obligations.

Brokers lack capacity, often don't communicate with traders due to lack of time. Or they wrongly assume that traders know what's required.

You need special authorisation to be able to submit these supplementary declarations and not every broker has one. The application process is complex.

Read 6 tweets
7 Jun
Clear as day.

The UK sees the Protocol as a "huge compromise" and was expecting the EU to reciprocate.

The EU expected the UK to follow through on its commitments - logical consequences of this agreement.

For example, the UK decided to apply the EU customs legislation, the UCC, in NI.

As a result, customs formalities outlined in the UCC apply to goods entering NI even from GB.


Seems like the UK was under the impression that the compromise it made was so big the EU won't possibly ask it to go through with it...

Read 4 tweets
5 Jun
So I have a feeling many companies are in for a rude awakening this month - the first round of supplementary customs declarations for companies importing from the EU

Thanks to the UK Gov's easements there was an option to defer customs declarations for the first 6 months and submit the bare minimum of data at the time of import (usually done by the carrier, logistics provider)

This was to be followed by a full, supplementary declaration up to 175 days later.

Which, you guessed it, is this month.

Read 10 tweets
4 Jun
Solving the NI border was always going to be technically challenging and politically sensitive.

Instead of working on these issues in advance, the UK and the EU signed a Protocol that was a high-level legal framework only.

Some of the practicalities were to be solved by the Joint Committee.

Here again - a patch-up job at best while it was becoming increasingly clear that the two sides have a different vision of how it should work

The UK's Command Paper was a clear sign that the UK's view on its obligations differed from that of the EU.

Were these differences addressed at the time? No, of course not.

Read 7 tweets
2 Jun
Great article on inventory management (just in time) and the global pandemic - it's more interesting than you think.

JIT, global supply chains, the shipping crisis and what companies should do next. Are we going to see more supply chains resilience?
While I have often said that I don't believe the pandemic will significantly shift supply chains (which are formed as a response to costs, availability, taxes and a number of other factors) I was thinking it's likely to impact the approach to inventory management.

The authors are equally sceptical about "supply chain resilience" but go even further when it comes to assessing the likelihood of impact on the type of inventory management - expanding storage space and increasing your inventory costs money.

/3 Image
Read 5 tweets
1 Jun
Interesting points by @CoppetainPU on WTO transparency (catching up on my reading)

Does transparency help or hinder trade negotiations, formation of trade policy etc?

While this focuses on the WTO, obviously parallels can be drawn between the WTO transparency debate, the wider transparency in trade debate and the recent discussions around the UK's trade strategy (FTA talks).

I think when it comes to transparency in trade a question that's more important than "should we?" is "how to?".

At the WTO, in the UK and everywhere else.

Read 4 tweets

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