This has become a six monthly joke. Once again the government is trying to pass off a routine and meagre annual increment as historic bonanza to farmers.
This thread explains why the claim is bogus. 1/6
Governments table hides the increase in percentage terms.
The annual increment is between 1% (maize, moong) to 5% (tur, urad, groundnut).
Compare this increase to annual inflation in petrol (33%) and diesel (22%) and you know why this MSP increase is actually a reduction. 2/6
The claim of offering 50% over the cost of production is bogus.
This table shows what the MSP should have been last year if the government had offered 50% over comprehensive cost(C2) as recommended by swaminathan commission.
(This year C2 cost not released by the govt yet) 3/6
The claim of offering 50% over partial cost (A2+ FL) is correct but there is nothing special about it.
The previous government also offered similar margin for most crops, in fact better than the one offer by this one in many cases. 4/6
This table shows the correct comparison: average annual increase offered by this and the previous government.
Accept Ragi, Nigerseed and Bajra the annual MSP increment in remaining 11 crops is worse during NDA2 than during UPA 2. 5/6
That leaves the last jumala: doubling of farmers income. this article explains why this is the biggest fraud played on the Indian farmers. 6/6 End of thread
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After the disaster of exit polls, no one wants to read an opinion polls. That’s a pity. A half decent opinion poll tells us more about public mood than news room chatter.
This 🧵 is about some salient findings of the latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey by @IndiaToday. It’s a telephonic survey and no longer the gold standard it used to be. Don’t spend time on its seats/votes forecast. Still it’s a valuable glimpse into the post election mood of the nation. 1/5 of 🧵 on #MOTN @IndiaToday
1. Notwithstanding BJP’s spin doctoring, Lok Sabha results are seen as a negative verdict on BJP. 2. Charges of misuse of agencies have greater traction 3. Anxiety about state of democracy and freedom of expression persist, though less pronounced. 2/5 of 🧵 on #MOTN @IndiaToday
4. Economy continues to be the biggest pain point. 5. Inflation may be down, but people can’t manage household expenses. 6. Unemployment is the supreme concern. 7. People don’t believe govt claims on employment.
Breaking: Mega pre poll survey ( random sample: 41k+) by eedina.com shows Congress headed for a comfortable majority (134-140 seats) with 10% vote lead over BJP (57-65 seats). Losses for JDS.
Congress wave in northern regions, BJP holds coastal and central.
Watch and listen to Dr A Narayan and Dr Vasu H V and myself on the methodology and findings of this survey.
My takeaways from Guj, HP and MCD outcome:
BJP continues its narrative advantage due to Modi's image, smart messaging and godi media. It also has better conversion rate due to money, strategy and organisational machine.
1/4
Thats why its victory in Guj was bigger and defeat in HP and MCD smaller than its govt performance and popular perception would warrant.
2/4
Yet BJP is not immune to anti incumbency and is vulnerable if it faces a single challenger with local roots, leadership and tenacity. BJP repeatedly falls to a determined opponent (Delhi, WB, Kisan).
It is fragile once its narrative dominance is challenged effectively.
3/4
The nation must be grateful to Anil Ghanwat for releasing the SC appointed committee (SCC) report on farm laws.
Or else we wouldn't know how much nonsense the country was spared.
This thread spells out why the headline grabbing part of the report is plain bogus. 1/9
SCC was tasked with "listening to the grievances of the farmers relating to the farm laws"
Here's what it did:
1.Interacted with farm unions
2.Gathered feedback on portal
3.Received emails
4.Offered its own opinion as "evidence based analysis"
Let's look at each of these. 2/9
Pillar 1 had a minor problem: all the protesting farmers' organisations, led by SKM, boycotted the SCC.
No one met them.
Did it try to meet protesting farmers, sitting out in open, accessible to anyone?
NO
What did SCC do to listen to farmers' grievances? Sample survey?
NO 3/9
Q: Tickets are not being sold at counter but are paid in advance?
A: Yes, not being sold at the station to avoid crowd, but being sold through the Govt. That is why it says "Advance" payment.
Where they pay makes no difference to the worker. 9/n
Q: Is Central Govt paying 85% of the ticket price?
A: No. This is a classical distraction to confuse everyone. This is a notional subsidy (usually 53%, but now 85% due to lesser numbers etc) built into passenger fares. There is NO concession on actual ticket price. 10/n
Q: Won't the Railways go in losses?
A: Yes, it would add a small amount to Railway's losses. It is a PSU, its objective is not just to make profit.
Railway ran free trains for Nepalese citizens after 2015 earthquake. Why can't it do so for Indian citizens? 11/n