After the disaster of exit polls, no one wants to read an opinion polls. That’s a pity. A half decent opinion poll tells us more about public mood than news room chatter.
This 🧵 is about some salient findings of the latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey by @IndiaToday. It’s a telephonic survey and no longer the gold standard it used to be. Don’t spend time on its seats/votes forecast. Still it’s a valuable glimpse into the post election mood of the nation.
1/5 of 🧵 on #MOTN @IndiaToday 1. Notwithstanding BJP’s spin doctoring, Lok Sabha results are seen as a negative verdict on BJP.
2. Charges of misuse of agencies have greater traction
3. Anxiety about state of democracy and freedom of expression persist, though less pronounced.
2/5 of 🧵 on #MOTN @IndiaToday

Breaking: Mega pre poll survey ( random sample: 41k+) by eedina.com shows Congress headed for a comfortable majority (134-140 seats) with 10% vote lead over BJP (57-65 seats). Losses for JDS.
Congress wave in northern regions, BJP holds coastal and central. Watch and listen to Dr A Narayan and Dr Vasu H V and myself on the methodology and findings of this survey.


More details of the survey at eedina.com/elections/surv…

My takeaways from Guj, HP and MCD outcome:
BJP continues its narrative advantage due to Modi's image, smart messaging and godi media. It also has better conversion rate due to money, strategy and organisational machine.
1/4 Thats why its victory in Guj was bigger and defeat in HP and MCD smaller than its govt performance and popular perception would warrant.
2/4

The nation must be grateful to Anil Ghanwat for releasing the SC appointed committee (SCC) report on farm laws.
Or else we wouldn't know how much nonsense the country was spared.
This thread spells out why the headline grabbing part of the report is plain bogus.
1/9 SCC was tasked with "listening to the grievances of the farmers relating to the farm laws"
Here's what it did:
1.Interacted with farm unions
2.Gathered feedback on portal
3.Received emails
4.Offered its own opinion as "evidence based analysis"

Let's look at each of these.
2/9

This has become a six monthly joke. Once again the government is trying to pass off a routine and meagre annual increment as historic bonanza to farmers.
This thread explains why the claim is bogus.
1/6 Governments table hides the increase in percentage terms.
The annual increment is between 1% (maize, moong) to 5% (tur, urad, groundnut).
Compare this increase to annual inflation in petrol (33%) and diesel (22%) and you know why this MSP increase is actually a reduction.
2/6

Breaking:
Is the Govt of India saying we have nearly 15 CRORES Corona positive cases?

That more than 1 lakh persons may have already died of Covid? 

That's 500 times more than the official figure, higher than any other country.

Don't believe me?

Follow this thread.

1/9 Govt released results of Part I of Serological survey by @ICMRDELHI

First rigorous random survey of pop.

Covers entire country outside hotspot/containment areas.

Survey done in May, data is for
disease spread on 30 APRIL
(as antibodies take a few weeks to develop) 

2/9

Now let's address some troll Qs:

Q: Tickets are not being sold at counter but are paid in advance?
A: Yes, not being sold at the station to avoid crowd, but being sold through the Govt. That is why it says "Advance" payment.
Where they pay makes no difference to the worker.
9/n Q: Is Central Govt paying 85% of the ticket price?

A: No. This is a classical distraction to confuse everyone. This is a notional subsidy (usually 53%, but now 85% due to lesser numbers etc) built into passenger fares. There is NO concession on actual ticket price.
10/n

Here is a story of moral cussedness, political apathy and spin doctoring.
Migrant workers are made to pay for their evacuation.
Govt passes the buck to state governments.
Ruling party uses spins & fakes to wriggle out.
This thread exposes the truth.
1/n
#FreeTrains4Workers Let's cut through the clutter and focus on three simple questions:
1. Who is eligible to use Shramik express trains?
2. How much fare does the railway charge?
3. Who pays this fare?
BJP spin doctors have tried to bluff their way through on all these.

This budget is a declaration of war on agriculture and Indian farmers.
This year every economist agreed on putting money in the hands of rural India so as to start a virtuous cycle.
This thread on how FM not only disregarded them, she launched 3-prong attack on agri.
1/4 1. LOW PRICES
FCI subsidy(for procurement and NFSA):
2019-20: 1,51,000 cr
2020-21: 75,000 cr
PM Aasha(MSP procurement)
2019-20:1,500 cr
2020-21: 500 cr
MIS/Price Support
2019-20:3,000 cr
2020-21:2,000 cr
Effect: farmers wont get remunerative prices as procurement gets hit
2/4

Youth throughout the country have shown up today in overwhelming numbers to stand for a democratic, secular & republic India
Any effort to divide them only makes them stronger.

Here is a thread of nationwide youth protests in solidarity with #BharatBandh today Law students at Carter Road, Bandra, #Mumbai

That current market price are well below MSP is now accepted by media and admitted by govt officials.
Yet in this thread I respond to this critique of our data (not to personal innuendos, political rhetoric) in the hope of settling this point. opindia.com/2018/10/fact-c… Let's take first commodity in our table: Bajara
Step 1: we take arrival data of each state for 1-24 oct from official AgriMarknet website (screenshot),
Step2: we use this to compute total national arrival for this period (attached table)