1. We're now reaching 420 ppm of CO2 with methane & nitrous oxide levels also rising

2. It's likely we'll be over 350 ppm for centuries: calamity

3. We face dire 1.5°C of global warming before 2030 and risk hellish 2.3 - 2.8°C by the 2040s

4. We can and must act now
Earth's ice is melting. Global food security is at risk. Emissions must stop as soon as humanly feasible. A global anti-imperialist movement to stop wars and shift to a postgrowth economy could slash emissions fairly towards zero in rich countries by…
Emissions will likely rise in the coming 18 months. It's hard to convey how terrible this is. Corporate media naturally downplay or ignore the severity.

'projections for 2021 show emissions..on a rising path. Next year there could be even stronger rises'…
Major methane sources:

Agriculture (cows, ...)
Fossil Fuels

and Permafrost (now or very soon)

'researchers haven't found evidence that methane is leaching in significant amounts from the warming Arctic — not yet, anyway.'…
Nitrous oxide emissions are:

'increasing faster than any scenario predicted by experts'

'consistent with scenarios where the global mean temperature would rise by 3C from pre-industrial levels.'

We must replace industrial agriculture with agroecology.…
We hit 350 ppm in the 1980s.

We must get back below 350 ppm for any kind of reasonable chance of safety according to James Hansen (who remains hopeful). And that ought to happen rapidly this century but that kind of timescale now seems beyond us.

If emissions keep rising this decade, 2C by the 2030s/40s and 3C by the 2050s/60s looks a likely scenario. Unthinkable horror.

If we cut emissions fast, as we must, the unmasking of the aerosol effect will add warming.🔥

Can we delay 2.5-3C? See here:…
Our food systems are now at risk as the climate-extinction crisis builds dramatically. See this thread for details:
'Temperatures are expected to pass 2C in the modest-mitigation SSP2-4.5 scenario between 2038 and 2072' (median year 2052)

higher emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario: 2C between 2035 and2058 (median 2048)

SSP5-8.5 scenario: 2C between 2034 and 2052 (median 2043)…
Committed warming seems set to take us to +2.5C eventually (though not all scientists agree on this).

But hellish 2.5-3C is possible by mid-century:

'There is a 50% probability of 2.4 –2.6 °C warming in the near term (2050) and 4.1–5 °C warming by 2100.'…

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More from @ClimateBen

4 Jun
2011: 'if there is to be any hope of avoiding civilization-threatening climate disruption, the U.S. and other nations must act immediately and aggressively on an unprecedented scale.'

2021: 'there's no longer any realistic chance of an orderly transition'…
'It is unpleasant to talk like this.. but no doctor would counsel withholding a diagnosis from a patient because it might upset them. If we’re in this much trouble, surely we must begin by telling the truth about it.

So let’s have some real talk..' 2011…
Read 4 tweets
28 May

0.75°C in the 2000s
*cryosphere tipping points & feedbacks
*coral reefs suffer extreme damage

1°C in the 2010s
*permafrost feedbacks
*rainforest tipping points

1.5°C in the 2020s
*global food security risk
*40-60% of primates, trees, & pollinators face extinction
It turns out that the Greenland ice sheet hit a tipping point at the end of the twentieth century.

So where is the emergency action?

'a step-change which is unlikely to be reversible in the near future.'…
'Until an El Niño event in 1982-83, mass bleaching at the scale of, say, the Caribbean basin or the Western Pacific or the Indian Ocean was unheard of. The first completely global bleaching event was in 1998..the first time the Great Barrier Reef..bleached'…
Read 14 tweets
26 May

1. The Greenland Ice Sheet reached a tipping point 20 years ago

2. The temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere lies within the next 20 to 30 years

3. 50% of all species may be vulnerable to thermal infertility due to climate change

4. We can still act
1. “I think it’s very important to emphasize that this loss of the ice sheet is not irreversible. We’ve witnessed a step-change that is unlikely to be reversible in the near future.."…
The temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere lies not at the end of the century or beyond, but within the next 20 to 30 years'…
Read 6 tweets
23 May

1. makes the tropics hard to live in or uninhabitable
2. risks Antarctic sea level rise horror in decades
3. wrecks rainforests if combined with deforestation
4. puts Arctic sea ice on road to ruin
5. endangers global food security
6. threatens unstoppable feedbacks

surpassing the 1.5°C threshold will represent a threat to global food security'

See thread for extraordinary details:

The UN says global food security is already at risk:
Read 4 tweets
22 May
Did you know?

40% of plants including trees face extinction.

50% of amphibians risk extinction.

60% of primates face extinction.

The global economic system is waging a war on nature.
'And this is just what we already know about. Researchers say there are huge gaps in our knowledge of plants, and more work is needed to assess the conservation status of more species.'…
Half of all amphibian species at risk of extinction…
Read 4 tweets
22 May
Dear Journalists,

Is the message from scientists "we need zero emissions by 2028 or so because of feedbacks and then climate change must be reversed somehow but geoengineering presents a danger to all life on Earth and carbon-sucking technology at scale is a fantasy"?

“If rapid emission reductions are initiated soon, it is still possible that at least a large fraction of required CO2 extraction can be achieved via relatively natural agricultural and forestry practices with other benefits,” the authors wrote.

From 2016:…
“On the other hand, if large fossil fuel emissions are allowed to continue, the scale and cost of industrial CO2 extraction, occurring in conjunction with a deteriorating climate with growing economic effects, may become unmanageable."

From 2016:…
Read 8 tweets

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