I was looking into recent UK COVID-19 data, and I think it's reasonable to conclude:

Case fatality rate has fallen by around 86%, from 1.1% in winter to 0.15% now

Case hospitalization rate has fallen by 63%

This pattern is evident in areas where the Delta variant dominant
Hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 lag behind cases. From trial and error, it looks like the best lag to use for hospitalizations is the 31 day period after a confirmed positive test. For deaths, cases over a 14 day period starting 28 days ago seems to work best.
The charts below show the correlation between weekly deaths and cases since October 2020, and the number of hospital inpatients and cases, compared with the lagged case numbers.
You can then use these values to work out case fatality and case hospitalization rates. The hospitalization rate is defined as the % of all cases over the previous 31 days that are in hospital on any given day, and the fatality rate deaths divided by lagged 14 day case numbers.
Weighted by the number of cases, the average case fatality rate was 1.1% from October 2020 to February 2021, and the hospitalization rate was 2.7% over the same period. As of the 6th of June, the fatality rate has fallen to 0.15% and hospitalization rate to 1.0%.
The hospitalization rate appears to be still falling, and the fatality rate seems to have plateaued over the last couple of weeks at around 0.15%.
Split by nation and English region, the same pattern can be seen, even in areas such as the North West and London where the Delta variant has been dominant for longer than 4 weeks.
Testing levels now are similar to what they were last autumn, so the recent declines in the hospitalization and fatality rates aren't being caused by an increase in testing. (ends)

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More from @peterdonaghy

8 Jun
The way they're stinging these announcements out they may as well have went the whole hog and painted them on a parade of elephants
Or got the entire population of Australia to spell them out in lights
Maybe etch them on the moon with giant lasers
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27 Jan
Israel released new data on the split of new COVID-19 cases by age and the results are... interesting. Israel's vaccination programme for the over 80s is nearly complete; 88% of over 80s have received a first dose, and 65% a second. The gap between doses appears around 3 weeks.
Given such a big disparity between vaccination rates among over 80s and the overall population, you might case rates for over 80s to fall relative to the overall population. However, this doesn't appear to have happened, at least not yet.
This chart compares weekly COVID cases for over 80s in Israel (black dashed line, left axis) and the % of the over 80s population with a 1st/2nd dose (blue lines, right axis) at the start of each week.
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
Another pretty disappointing day with the Northern Ireland COVID-19 vaccine rollout yesterday, with 3,675 first doses (0.19% of the population) and 82 second doses. The weekly increase rate has fallen to 1.6% of the population; the increase rate in both England and Wales is 4.1%.
The same data as a daily increase - for a full week now vaccination rates in NI have lagged behind GB
Interesting on plans for the next phase over the next few weeks
Read 4 tweets

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