Thread by @gyude_moore

Thread:
I am sure the "more than 100 economists" who signed this earnestly believe they're doing the right thing. Sorta like the road to hell and good intentions, the blanket ban proposed here is misguided and will cause more harm than good.
news.trust.org/item/202106081…

Any ban must accommodate a carve-out for the poorest countries in the world, since they bear the least responsibility for the crisis and the greatest need. I'm talking about the 48 African countries south of the Sahara. Nobody should look to Africa for emissions reduction.

Here is a nuanced take from @CDCgroup on what a transition to net-zero looks like in Africa. It accounts for the peculiarity of the African market and sees a role for a transitional role for some fossil fuels - like natural gas.
assets.cdcgroup.com/wp-content/upl…

The report acknowledges that Africa's lack of reliable electricity stifles growth and entrenches poverty. In the Sub-Saharan energy market, consumers pay some of the highest electricity tariffs in the world for an unreliable product. Energy poverty is widespread.

And while it is true that the cost of energy generated from renewables is cheaper - this ceases to be the case when combined with the cost of storage. And it makes no sense to talk about renewable without storage since the renewable energy is intermittent.

Here is an IMF paper on storage:
"At the scale needed, storage of renewable
energy is also currently not a viable option as the necessary technology is expensive and still
developing although prices are falling fast..." imf.org/en/Publication…

This is why a blanket ban like the one signed on by "over 100 economists" is counterproductive for African economic growth and poverty reduction. Like the @CDCgroup report cited earlier, this is not an argument for fossil fuels or a rant against renewables.

Almost all African countries have signed the Paris Agreement and made commitments to decarbonize. But decarbonization using renewables may not be viable for most in the short term. That's why any ban against natural gas must nuanced, initially enforced in wealthier countries.

Gas generation can be designed to be timebound - tied to GDP or graduation from IDA. It can be designed to eventually fill a back-up role for intermittent flows from a renewable-dominated energy mix. Africa's poverty is neither a strategy for or price of net zero.