(Thread) Fear and Desperation

In this fabulous lecture, Harvard prof. Steven Levitsky explains that the Republicans are engaging in hardball tactics because they feel their backs are to the wall and they're desperate.
If this is the kind of thing I've been saying, it's because I've been reading Levitsky's work for years. He writes about democracies in Latin America, democratic erosion, and competitive authoritarianism. He's also a co-author of 👇

1/
Also, 👇
His point: For most of the 20th century, American politics "worked."

That’s because through the 1970s, both parties culturally and demographically similar.

Specifically, they were white. White men controlled all major American institutions.

2/
Voter suppression laws were legal and effective. In 1880, 61% of black men voted. In 1910, only 2%.

Then from the 1950s until the 1970s, we went through a major upheaval.

The parties realigned as (1) Black voters, many who were finally able to vote, voted Democratic. . .

3/
. . . and southern whites became Republican.

Before the 1970s, white evangelicals were mostly Democratic but dispersed over both parties.

Now they're Republican.

Today Democratic and Republican parties are different culturally and demographically.

4/
The Democrats have a 'rainbow' coalition of educated urbanites and minority communities.

The two parties look different, live in different places, fundamentally different conceptions of what it means to be an American.

5/
We always had working democratic institutions, but they only worked for some of the people.

Democrats want a true racially diverse democracy.

Republicans don't want to lose dominance. They see a bleak future as their numbers shrink.

6/
The Republican Party, fearful and desperate, has evolved into an extremist, anti-system party.

They think if they lose power they'll never regain it.

They are trying to break politics by rendering it dysfunctional.

7/
What does Steven Levitsky see as the greatest danger to American democracy?

The government slipping into dysfunction, which will erode public confidence.

8/
When societies lose confidence in democracy, they are vulnerable to the appeal of strongmen and demagogues who promise to get things done.

I'm telling you this because the panic setting in among supporters of democracy can be harmful or helpful, depending.

9/
If this panic translates into healthy concern and drives people to be more engaged, it will be a good thing.

Democracy requires widespread participation.

On the other hand, if the panic erodes confidence ("Democracy is already dead!") it will be harmful.

10/
That's why one goal of Active Measures was to erode confidence in democracy.

I'm also telling you this because a lot of people give conditionals: "If X doesn't happen, American democracy is doomed!"

11/
There isn't one way or one path. If something doesn't work, try something else.

Another reason panic is harmful is that it leads to destructive and desperate behavior.

A diverse coalition owns the future. Numbers from Levitsky:

12/
Yes, Republicans want to take us back to 1890. Think for a minute about how hard that would be.

The way to save democracy is with more democracy, or what Obama calls citizenship.


13/
Ooops. I forgot to add the book from the second tweet.

Each of my threads has at least one oops. It helps me appreciate all the copyeditors I've worked with over the years.
Sometimes, when people tell me Democrats need to start "fighting dirty" or all will be lost, I try to find out exactly what Democrats should do.

I rarely get a straight answer, just a vague "Democrats are weak and will lose."
I agree. The conditional, "If X doesn't happen all will be lost" shifts responsibility to someone else.

It's also a form of magical thinking -- the problem of right-wing extremists can be solved with X.

The problem is way deeper.

Getting rid of the filibuster will definitely speed things up.
But then so would a Democratic sweep in 2022.

The Constitution requires that Senators be elected by the people; legislation can't undo that.
Biden is trying to demonstrate that Democrats are capable of making government work.

People and tell me Biden is failing because he hasn't succeeded RIGHT NOW, but it depends on the goal, right?

If the measure of success is "Democrats get everything they want right now," that's unreasonable.

If the goal is to save democracy, that's a longer goal.

BTW, Biden reportedly read this book very closely.

Maybe Biden is channeling his inner Steven Levitsky.
Also from Levitsky and Ziblatt: "Democracy is slow grinding work."

A lot of people who say they want democracy really don't have the patience for it.

Fast results can only happen in an autocracy.
A thread like this isn't complete without my list: terikanefield.com/things-to-do/

There is plenty to do now.

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More from @Teri_Kanefield

12 Jun
Anti-Hardball Tactics

The GOP is an anti-system party willing to torpedo democratic institutions to retain dominance.

Q: Should Democrats fight like Republicans?

Georgetown Law prof. David Pozen offers an answer and a solution. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
1/ If you haven’t noticed, Republicans have been engaging in hardball tactics.

I'm being ironic. Of course, you noticed.

Constitutional Hardball tactics are technically within the rules, but shocking, norm-breaking, and destructive.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ Hardball tactics are carried out within the law, but subvert the spirit of the law.

Example: McConnell refusing to allow Obama to appoint a Supreme Court justice.
Read 12 tweets
11 Jun
Abusing power and assaulting the separation of powers was a hallmark of the Trump administration.

If I recall, he was even impeached for abusing his powers and the Republicans gave him a pass.
Just a friendly reminder that if the people who abused power are not held "accountable," it's because they are being shielded by a major political party that holds a lot of power.

You can't say Schiff and Swalwell haven't been doing their best.
Underestimating how entrenched the anti-democratic forces are? Unreasonable expectations? Thinking change can be swift?

Think about what would be happening right now if Trump was in the White House and compare.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
Just pointing out that for a conspiracy to be a crime, the goal didn't have to be a violent attack.

A conspiracy to stop or interfere with the voting in Congress would be enough to make it a crime.

reuters.com/world/us/three… ImageImage
You can see this is what they're charged with: Conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding.

This, I think, is the flaw in Giuliani's First Amendment defense. He says you there isn't evidence he intended violence.

But did he intend to interfere with the counting of the votes? Image
Interfering with the counting of the votes is "lawless" under the Brandenburg v Ohio standard.

The standard doesn't require violence. It requires "lawlessness."

A subtle distinction, but a distinction.
oyez.org/cases/1968/492 Image
Read 5 tweets
9 Jun
For people asking me about Merrick Garland's decision in the defamation case, I'll refer you to this article by
@BradMossEsq.

politico.com/magazine/story…

This is a defamation case.

The legal question is whether Trump made the statement in the scope of his employment

1/
In other words, this case isn't about the rape itself (except that truth is a defense to libel)

I suspect that the issue will be appealed, and the appellate court will decide whether it agrees that the defamatory statements were uttered in the scope of Trump's employment.

2/
The legal issue, from the government's brief: documentcloud.org/documents/2079…

This is how the DOJ would answer a lot of the questions I'm getting.

It's easy to check the DOJ's legal reasoning.

3/
Read 20 tweets
8 Jun
You can start with my list and build from there: terikanefield.com/things-to-do/

The most important thing you can do is get involved in local politics. I live in a blue city in a blue state, and right-wingers are getting a foothold at the very local level.
Dear Twitter: One way to kill democracy is to cause a majority to give up and feel like the situation is hopeless.

Democracy (like elections) requires public confidence and public engagement.

This talk becomes self-fulfilling. People hear it, believe it, give up, and disengage.
Clint Watts @selectedwisdom said that one goal of active measure was to get people to lose confidence in democratic processes.

McConnell is trying to get people to lose confidence in the democratic process by obstructing everything and rendering the process broken.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
My latest from @NBCNewsTHINK

Over the weekend, I talked about how conspiracy theories have deep roots in American conservative history.

1/
I should have included a definition of "conspiracy theories."

A conspiracy theory is "a belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event."

They have deep roots our history. . .



2/
A famous example was blood libel in the middle ages: adl.org/education/reso…

It's a lie, but a particular kind of lie.

Another was Hitler's "Jews stabbed us in the back" explanation for why Germany lost the war.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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