Kit Yates Profile picture
Jun 11, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
A thread on cases and positivity rates in the UK.
Firstly, cases are going up almost as quickly as in September - Doubling every 9 days. We're nowhere near where we were at the peak in Jan, but be under no illusion, cases are rising quickly.
1/10
Scotland's cases (per 100k) are currently rising fastest, reflecting the fact they seem to have been impacted by the delta variant earlier on.
Next fastest it England and then Wales.
In Northern Ireland cases still seem to be coming down.
2/10
It's a similar story with positivity - rising most rapidly in Scotland, more slowly in England and Wales and declining in Northern Ireland.
3/10
At a regional level in England, all regions are now seeing rises in cases (per 100k) and are moving away again from the lowest (September 1st) levels (green diamonds).
4/10
These cross-regional rises are reflected in positivity rates as well. All regions are back up above their September 1st positivity levels.
North West is highest and rising fastest.
5/10
Looking at the positivity rates by English local authority, the majority of English LAs (84%) showed week on week increases. Most (63%) now have positivity rates higher than September 1st.
6/10

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Apr 2
A water company released sewage into the stream that runs into the beach where we were holidaying. I didn’t like the idea of swimming in the sea after that, so I tried to sue to water company for spoiling our holiday. This is what happened…
1/21
First up, cards on the table, I am a keen outdoor swimmer. I swim with a group of friends most weeks in our local stretch of the Thames. Come rain or shine, winter or summer, there are usually at least two of our number bracing the river waters north of Oxford.
2/21
We do so cautiously, however, especially in winter when it has been raining heavily and it is almost guaranteed that sewage will have been pumped into the river a few miles upstream.
The giveaway as to whether there has been a discharge or not is the smell.
3/21
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
It's π-day (3/14 in US date format) - the international day of mathematics.
But people often ask me why π is important. Why do we care about calculating more and more digits?
In short, "What is the point of π?"
Well, here is the answer...
1/
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510...
The number of digits after the decimal place in pi extend off into the distance (these are the first 50).
Truncating π's decimal expansion after the second decimal place (3.14) is sufficient to specify the date of pi day.
With 11 digits of π we can calculate the circumference of the Earth from its radius with an error of just a mm.
With 38 digits we can compute the circumference of a circle encompassing the whole of the known Universe with an accuracy to within the radius of a hydrogen atom.
3/
Read 38 tweets
Feb 29
It's leap day - February 29th.

It's a special day - the rarest in our calendar.

But do you know why we have leap days at all and how often exactly they come around?

Read on to find out...
1/21
This exceptional day has been associated with weird and wonderful traditions over the years: from the wildly outdated notion that 29th of February is the only day when women can propose to men, to the Leaper Year festival held in Anthony, New Mexico.
2/21
vox.com/2016/2/29/1113…
As a rule of thumb, leap days come around every four years. But there are exceptions to this rule. For example, at the turn of every century we miss a leap year. Even though the year is divisible by four, we don’t add a leap day in the years that end in 00. But...
3/21
Read 23 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
Main points from the ONS/UKHSA Winter Infection survey.
TL-DR: There has been an increase in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland during the 2 weeks leading up to 13 December 2023.
1/8
gov.uk/government/sta…
In England and Scotland, the estimated prevalence on 13 December was 4.2% (95% Credible intervals (CrI): 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to around 2,549,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,996,000 to 3,236,000) being infected or around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
2/8 Image
In England, the estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on 13 December was 4.3% (95% CrI: 3.3%, 5.4%), equivalent to 2,333,000 individuals (95% CrI: 1,825,000 to 2,953,000) being infected with SARS-CoV-2. This corresponds to around 1 in 24 people (95% CrI: 1 in 30 to 1 in 19).
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
On Newsnight I was asked what I thought the biggest mistake Johnson's government made during the acute phase of the pandemic.
I only got to give one answer, but if I'd had time I would have said:
1. Johnson missed 5 COBRA meetings. Didn’t chair his first one until early March.
🧵
Missing those COBRA meetings meant he was not up-to-date with the latest information he required.

2. SAGE warned against physical contact in early March – next day Johnson was boasting about shaking hands with patients (including covid patients) in hospital.

A huge error.
3. The Johnson government locked down too late in March of 2020. Even a week early would have saved tens of thousands of lives.
huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lockdown…
Read 11 tweets
Nov 29, 2023
The Government’s CSA during the acute phase of the pandemic, Sir Patrick Vallance, gave evidence at the #CovidInquiry last week
Most of the news that filtered out was focussed on political failures like Eat out to Help out - but should we have been focussing more on science...
🧵
The headline-grabbing story was probably Vallance's testimony that SAGE was not consulted about the now infamous ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme.
2/25
bylinetimes.com/2023/11/23/eat…
Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, corroborated his testimony in his own appearance later in the week, revealing that “there was no consultation. Neither Patrick nor I can recall it and I think we would have done”.
3/25
Read 26 tweets

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