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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
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11 Jun, 6 tweets, 3 min read
This 🧵 from @Dr_D_Robertson is a really good explanation about how to interpret the relationship between cases and hospitalisation, preferably early on.

Before it is too late.

Again.
Worth linking it to @AdamJKucharski 🧵 today on how long cases could continue to rise, and how they, combined with the holes in our vaccination programme and immunity defences can drive hospitalisations.
Also this from Chile that has an advanced vaccination programme yet still COVID (more ALPHA and P1 than DELTA variant to date) has found large holes in its immunity defences
These next three tweets from @Dr_D_Robertson illustrate it clearly...remembering the 11 day lag between cases and hospitalisations...and turning to the NW where cases were higher sooner than many other Regions busy catching up.
There are three waves going on with
1/ those in the fully vaccinated (more of a ripple) ,
2/those in the partially vaccinated and
3/ those in the unvaccinated.
On current trajectory we are likely to reach 15k cases on or around 21-6-21 and what is happening to change its course?

Nothing much that I can see. We are losing control of it right now.

And that is 10 days before Johnson’s “full stream ahead” on 21-6-21.

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More from @fascinatorfun

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
12 Jun
When viruses jump to humans it would be "very rare for them to be a perfect," said Prof Wendy Barclay, Imperial College virologist. "They settle in and then they have a great time."
“There are examples of viruses from flu pandemics to Ebola making the jump and then accelerating.”
“It's "foolish", @ArisKatzourakis , “to attempt to put a number on how high it could go”, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years. “Other viruses have far higher R0s and the record holder, measles, can cause explosive outbreaks.”
"There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Barclay. "Measles is between 14 and 30 depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out." Image
Read 6 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
12 Jun
🦠 7738 new cases. Even by specimen date there have been 3 x 7k+ days on the trot and likely another 7k+ day when all results in.

⚰️ 60 day deaths (21) nearly double 28 day deaths (12)

💉 488k vaccination doses given

🏥 admissions UP -187 on 8-6-21.

ICU 🛌 UP -158 on 10-6-21
🦠. Cases just before relaxation of measures on 17-5-21 : 1852

7th, 8th, 9th May all over 7,600 and 10th likely to be similar when all swabs processed.

That has quadrupled in 4 weeks. ImageImageImage
🏥 admissions were at 78 on 16-5-21. Now at 187.

More than doubled and hospitalisations lag cases. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
12 Jun
Our closest allies no longer trust Boris Johnson

“Domestically (Johnson) has taken to new heights the art of being forgivable. So does it matter that in Cornwall he’s in the company of a handful of foreign leaders whose votes he doesn’t need?”
thetimes.co.uk/article/our-cl…
“Yes, because Britain needs their trust and, for now, Boris is Britain. He does not inspire that trust. Northern Ireland is perhaps the first example of why this matters. It will not be the last.” Image
Oh the insults Johnson (& his mates) have dished out as our stock in the eyes of the world (& literally) diminishes Image
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
12 Jun
Play nice together | Lewis Baston | The Critic Magazine

“A sensible party system for Britain probably wouldn’t have the Labour or Conservative parties. There would be a socialist party, a leftish Green party, a greenish NIMBY party,… thecritic.co.uk/issues/june-20…
“.. a working class “fund the NHS, hang the paedos” party, a social democratic and liberal party, a right of centre liberal pro-business party, a national-conservative party, secessionist nationalist parties and some flotsam and jetsam to the right of the nat-cons. “
Such a realignment would be liberating: we’d no longer have to share a party with people we despise for the sake of winning an election — though both main parties are sweaty, overcrowded political omnibuses, there are also several tribes crammed into the Lib Dems’ creaking Mini.
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
12 Jun
Handing out peerages - Good Law Project

“In March 2012 the Sunday Times published a rather mean piece about him which included the claim that (as the Court put it) “in return for cash donations to the Conservative Party, goodlawproject.org/news/handing-o…
“[he] corruptly offered for sale the opportunity to influence government policy and gain unfair advantage through secret meetings with the Prime Minister and other senior ministers.”
He sued the Sunday Times for defamation and, to be fair to him, he won but the Court of Appeal also said the claim above was substantially true. As a candidate for a great honour you would think he was, well, you would think he was an odd one.

On the other hand, he is Very Rich.
Read 12 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
12 Jun
How other countries see us:

“Boris Johnson, Britain’s freewheeling, clownish prime minister, is about to play host…Story by story, scandal by scandal, Mr. Johnson has been exposed as a slapdash, venal, incompetent leader.
But it doesn’t seem to matter.”
nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opi…
(Cummings’) “revelations came against a backdrop of reports exposing the Conservatives’ dodgy dealings during the pandemic: Covid-19 contracts worth billions of pounds going to friends of Conservative lawmakers with no experience in the health sector,…
“business tycoons with direct lines to the prime minister to push their interests and a lavish renovation of the prime minister’s residence at Downing Street that involved a secret donation by a Tory backer…
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