Thread by @naukarshah

Dear PM @narendramodi, after the surprise incursion from China last summer & the Galwan valley incident, I have been trying to understand China, by studying their history, culture, language etc.

I am no China expert. But here is two cents on why they did what they did. 1/n

As with India, China also should be studied based on its current position in its civilisational and historic journey.

And in that journey, there is not a more important theme than this theme of "Unification of China" 2/n

Unification phase and disintegration phase is a repeated pattern in Chinese history.

Hence it becomes important to understand which phase they view themselves to be in, in the present.

And in their collective imagination, this is very clearly a unification phase. 3/n

These phases have to be seen in decades if not centuries. That is the luxury and privilege of having 1000s of years of unbroken civilisational history.

Coming out from a century of humiliation, the first phase of that unification, of the mainland territory, was done by Mao. 4/n

What is currently going on in Hong Kong can be seen as that process of unification to the mainland.

Let me categorically state here that I am in no way endorsing what they are doing. But when you analyse, you have to understand the objective in the subject's mind. 5/n

What is more important for them though is Taiwan. Now there is no historic basis for Taiwan being part of a unified China except for say a couple of centuries.

But in the collective imagination, reunification of Taiwan is now a civilisational goal and an imperative. 6/n

But where do we fit in in this scheme of things?

To understand that we may need to read a bit of "Entire History" of the unification that happened under Qin dynasty.

Especially about King Hui of Qin and his advisor Zhang Yi. 7/n

Before Qin started off on unification journey south and elsewhere, they had to first deal with the potential danger of Northern tribal chiefdoms collectively called Hu.

So they used to do preemptive attacks on the Hu before they start their actual unification campaigns. 8/n

They used to assess opportune moments to settle the northern areas, and they have had to do it repeatedly, before they go on for the main unification/expansion campaigns.

Opportune moments is a key factor here. 9/n

From China's point of view, it was important to assess

1. India's intent (as expressed by words and actions).

2. Blunt any potential advantage that could trouble them when they are busy elsewhere.

Our intent, as expressed by words of our Home minister in parliament, though it was just the blabber mouth
@AmitShah, stated that we intent to take back Aksai Chin.

Though personally I don't think he understands the difference between Akshay's chin and Aksai Chin. 11/n

Action wise, we were rightfully building up our border infrastructure.

This process had got some acceleration from the of beginning of this decade, and something @narendramodi govt has put additional focus on as well to his credit. 12/n

Then in April 2020, we signalled a potential economic decoupling from China, with our executive order preventing FDIs from neighbouring countries. Suddenly we said we don't welcome Chinese money.

After this, we should have definitely been more prepared. 13/n

So now, they have to settle the western border and blunt any advantage that we have in the region, before they focus on their more serious reunification dream.

For without settling the northern areas, Qin couldn't have pursued unification elsewhere. 14/n

Here is where that opportune moment came. Due to covid-19 pandemic, we retained the reserves in the peace-time locations unlike any other summer.

The time to blunt any potential aggression points/advantages and settle this border to their 59 claim line once and for all. 15/n

And they did achieve that to a great extent. But our moves on the southern banks slightly surprised them and they had to surrender a bit of what they took.

But here I would like to share an interesting story of Qin dynasty and Zhang Yi again dear PM @narendramodi. 16/n

So the Qin wins a bloody war against a neighbouring kingdom and captures some 7 towns of theirs.

After that the king asks on further plans. And Zhang Yi advises him to give 3 towns back to the defeated kingdom. This is some 300 BC okay. 17/n

Army commanders are furious. But Zhang Yi says that it is important to give 3 towns back.

1. As it saves the face of the defeated king among his population
2. Blunts any permanent resentment among the population.
3. Capture of other 4 towns gets legitimised. 18/n

So here we are. With them claiming we should be happy with what we have achieved. The 3 towns that we got back to save face, reduce resentment and legitimize their claims to the other 4. 19/n

But today's article in ifeng.com profusely praising you dear PM @narendramodi, is probably a signal that they are satisfied with what they have achieved and would like this border to be a bit stable as they focus on their reunification dream. 20/n

It might be good to read up on horizontal & vertical alliances theories.

My request to you dear PM @narendramodi, is to encourage studies on China in a massive scale. We need to be knowing a lot more about our neighbour.

Once, twice.. but we shouldn't be blindsided ever again.

To repeat, I am no expert on China.

But in the next 5-10 years we should ensure there are experts on China in every major university. Funded by our Governments and foundations & not by the Chinese.

Enemy or not, it is imperative that we understand our neighbour. n/n