New data suggest the Pfizer-BNT & Moderna mRNA vaccines are associated with an increased risk (16 cases per million doses) of developing heart inflammation in adolescents & young adults. However, the majority of cases were mild (>80% fully recovered).🧵 fda.gov/media/150054/d…
What does this mean?
For young adults, the benefits of vaccination still outweigh the risks.
For children, the picture *with mRNA vaccines* is less clear and requires careful evaluation of the benefits and potential risks.
Although children are unlikely to develop severe COVID-19, they are at risk of long COVID, and can rarely develop a severe multi-system inflammatory syndrome.
They are also able to transmit the virus to others, including their family members. This may also harm children.
One option might be to give children a lower dose of an mRNA vaccine, and this is currently being studied.
Alternatively, other types of vaccine may not have the same risk of causing heart inflammation, and may be better suited to children. cnet.com/health/pfizer-…
The Novavax vaccine is a more traditional type of vaccine, and has been found to be highly efficacious in a UK clinical trial (96% efficacy against symptomatic disease caused by the original strain).
Despite performing extremely well in clinical trials, Novavax has experienced difficulty obtaining raw materials needed to manufacture their vaccine.
These hurdles are now believed to be cleared, and the company expects to produce 150m doses/month in Q4. reuters.com/business/healt…
In summary, this new discovery about heart inflammation is unfortunate news, but I think it is likely to be more of a speed bump rather than a permanent obstacle to vaccinating children.
We shouldn’t shrug our shoulders and accept infections in children because of it.
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UK pre-print study showing people infected with the delta variant (B.1.617.2, first identified in India) were 64% more likely to transmit the virus to household members than those infected with alpha (B.1.1.7/UK).
⚠️ Children were 46% more likely to transmit than young adults.
While most older adults have been vaccinated (making them less likely to transmit if infected), less than half of younger adults have been vaccinated.
The higher risk of transmission by children is therefore unlikely to be entirely explained by the vaccination of adults.
It is also likely that many (if not most) of the adult index cases in this study were either unvaccinated, or only partially vaccinated.
Additionally, data published by the UK government last year showed children were more likely to transmit than adults. gov.uk/government/pub…
The latest data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics show that over 1 million people in Great Britain are estimated to be living with long COVID.
Nearly 400 thousand of these have been living with long COVID for at least one year.
The most common symptoms reported by people living with long COVID were fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain, and difficulty concentrating.
However, it is possible that some of these symptoms could be attributable to a cause other than long COVID in at least some people.
Of the people living with long COVID, nearly two-thirds (63.7%) reported some limitation in their daily activities.
Nearly one in five (18.8%) reported that they were limited a lot. That means at least 192,000 people in the UK now experience disability as a result of long COVID.
There are now clear signs of a growing B.1.617.2 epidemic in the UK.
While cases caused by the B.1.1.7 (alpha/UK) variant are decreasing, B.1.617.2 cases are growing. The majority of S-gene positive cases depicted in green in the graph below are likely to be B.1.617.2 cases.
Representative antibody study of Iquitos, Peru, after their devastating 1st wave. Over two-thirds of the sample had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, suggesting 70% of the city had been infected. Children were more likely to have antibodies than adults (except >=60). thelancet.com/journals/langl…
Although 70% of the city’s population had previously been infected, this was insufficient to prevent a second wave beginning in January 2021 caused by the P.1 variant. This suggests herd immunity can’t be reached by natural infection, which is less effective than vaccination.
Interestingly, a very high proportion of children had been infected, despite school closures. However, Iquitos is a very poor city and most residents have to leave home to purchase food on a daily basis. Children are likely more exposed to the community than in other settings.
Study of 3 UK variant (B.1.1.7) outbreaks in childcare centres in Hesse, Germany, showing that children and adults were similarly likely to be infected, and that children and staff were similarly likely to transmit the virus to their household contacts. 🧵 eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
In this study, outbreaks were studied in 3 childcare centres.
Except for one childcare centre, where more adults than children were infected (53 vs. 31%), an equal proportion of children and adults were infected (27-28% in centre 2, and 17% in centre 3).
The authors then looked at the household contacts of the infected staff and children.
Overall, they found that 37% of contacts were infected (32% of child contacts and 39% of adult contacts).
(1/4) Vietnam has reported the emergence of a variant which combines elements of the UK (B.1.1.7) & Indian (B.1.617.2) variants. According to the Health Minister it could spread “very fast” in the air.
➡️ straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/v…
Vietnam is struggling to contain the new variants.
(2/4) A common feature of coronaviruses is their ability to exchange their genetic material (recombination).
This probably happens in all infected people. As the virus reproduces, its copies may exchange genetic material with each other.
Most changes are probably unremarkable.
(3/4) But it’s also possible for people to be infected with different variants at the same time. This is riskier. The more community transmission there is, the more likely this is to occur.