Study of 3 UK variant (B.1.1.7) outbreaks in childcare centres in Hesse, Germany, showing that children and adults were similarly likely to be infected, and that children and staff were similarly likely to transmit the virus to their household contacts. 🧵
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
In this study, outbreaks were studied in 3 childcare centres.

Except for one childcare centre, where more adults than children were infected (53 vs. 31%), an equal proportion of children and adults were infected (27-28% in centre 2, and 17% in centre 3).
The authors then looked at the household contacts of the infected staff and children.

Overall, they found that 37% of contacts were infected (32% of child contacts and 39% of adult contacts).
However, when they looked at who brought the virus into the household, they found that the contacts of children were more likely to be infected than the contacts of adults (39% vs. 33%), although this did not reach statistical significance.
Interestingly, it appeared that child index cases were more likely to infect adults, and adult index cases were more likely to infect children.

This may reflect patterns of close contact inherent in caring for young children.
The study has a number of limitations which may affect the results. In particular, not all persons were tested. The authors may have missed some cases, particularly in children, who are more likely to be asymptomatic than adults.
In summary, this study provides yet more evidence that children and adults are similarly susceptible to infection, and that children and adults are similarly likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2.

This is true even for very young children.

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More from @DrZoeHyde

2 Jun
Representative antibody study of Iquitos, Peru, after their devastating 1st wave. Over two-thirds of the sample had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, suggesting 70% of the city had been infected. Children were more likely to have antibodies than adults (except >=60).
thelancet.com/journals/langl… Image
Although 70% of the city’s population had previously been infected, this was insufficient to prevent a second wave beginning in January 2021 caused by the P.1 variant. This suggests herd immunity can’t be reached by natural infection, which is less effective than vaccination.
Interestingly, a very high proportion of children had been infected, despite school closures. However, Iquitos is a very poor city and most residents have to leave home to purchase food on a daily basis. Children are likely more exposed to the community than in other settings.
Read 5 tweets
29 May
(1/4) Vietnam has reported the emergence of a variant which combines elements of the UK (B.1.1.7) & Indian (B.1.617.2) variants. According to the Health Minister it could spread “very fast” in the air.
➡️ straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/v…

Vietnam is struggling to contain the new variants. Image
(2/4) A common feature of coronaviruses is their ability to exchange their genetic material (recombination).

This probably happens in all infected people. As the virus reproduces, its copies may exchange genetic material with each other.

Most changes are probably unremarkable.
(3/4) But it’s also possible for people to be infected with different variants at the same time. This is riskier. The more community transmission there is, the more likely this is to occur.

Recombination events like this have been detected in the UK.
virological.org/t/recombinant-…
Read 7 tweets
22 May
1. What proportion of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity? It depends on a number of factors, including how contagious a virus is, and how well a vaccine can prevent infection.

Even very contagious variants can be stopped if efficacy is high enough. 🧵
2. This is a very simple model with lots of assumptions, but gives a rough idea of what we need to aim for to achieve herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Four theoretical vaccines are shown, with 60 to 90% efficacy against infection.
3. Vertical lines mark estimates of the contagiousness of the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, the UK (B.1.1.7) variant, & the Indian (B.1.617.2) variant.

The proportion of people needing to be vaccinated (vertical axis) is the point where the vaccine & variant lines intersect.
Read 10 tweets
9 May
🧵 The Indian variant has me worried, and I fear Europe could be headed for a third/fourth wave if it’s not contained.

If you can’t get a FFP2/N95 mask, follow the tips below and in this video by @SandhyaRamanat1 to improve the effectiveness of your mask.
I hope I’m wrong about the variant, but there are warning signs from multiple countries that the Indian variant is more transmissible than the UK variant.

This means that the measures that previously worked to keep people safe may not be enough now.
It does not mean that the situation is hopeless (it isn’t), or that getting infected is inevitable (it’s not).

The variant can’t break the laws of physics, so masks and ventilation still work. But you may have to step them up (i.e., use better masks, and increase ventilation).
Read 6 tweets
6 May
Here’s a very good news story. New studies show the Pfizer-BNT vaccine works incredibly well, including against the South African variant (the most immune-evading variant known).

But the second dose is critical.

The Novavax vaccine also holds up well against the SA variant. 🧵
Real-world data from Qatar show the Pfizer-BNT vaccine is effective against the UK and South African variants, but only after the second dose.

For example the vaccine was only 39% effective against severe disease after one dose, but this rose to 97% (92-99%) after two doses.
Here’s the effectiveness by first, then second dose:

Infection:
🇬🇧 29%, 89%
🇿🇦 17%, 75%

Severe disease:
🇬🇧 54%, 100% (82-100%)
🇿🇦 0%, 100% (74-100%)
Any variant: 39%, 97% (92-99%)
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 10 tweets
5 May
Children get #COVID19 and transmit the virus much more than thought. My recent paper on the subject (which has now been typeset) explains why many studies got this wrong, and how we can design better research.

Translations below.
🇩🇪🇫🇷🇳🇱🇪🇸🇵🇹🇧🇷🇯🇵
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
Children get #COVID19 and transmit much more than thought. Here's why the early studies got it wrong, and how we can design better research.

🇩🇪Deutsch:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=d…

🇫🇷Français :
translate.google.com/translate?hl=f…

🇳🇱Nederlands:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=n…

👇 More translations 👇
Children get #COVID19 and transmit much more than thought. Here's why the early studies got it wrong, and how we can design better research.

🇪🇸Español:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=e…

🇵🇹🇧🇷Português:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=p…

🇯🇵日本語:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=j…
Read 4 tweets

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