Thread by @nonewthing

Everyone knows I am all for another RCB signing. People are insisting on giving Saliba a chance, but we will be resting all our hopes of being able to pin teams back and play out cleanly ONLY on a talented 19-year-old. Which other top club would do that?

A LITTLE THREAD.

My only problem with the Ben White signing is how late it is. Last season, he was absolutely class in the Championship with Leeds. Clubs should have got him then. Opportunity windows are important when picking up players. Sven Botman was a 6ft Ajax CB I knew two seasons before

I was wondering how good he could be at Championship level. Numerous soccer blogs were picking him up then as a potential gem. Only Lille exploited the opportunity window. Opportunity windows when acquiring players are important. Buendia and Pereira should not have stayed with

their clubs after the seasons they had in the Championship respectively. A young talent dominating a lower league is a potential gem. Even if it does not work out, you can still flog him off and get your money back from a lower club.

It is important when scouting at lower levels

to focus on profiles and physical ability.

A 6ft, athletic, ballplaying CB who is not, for one reason or another, playing at a lower club is a potential gem. Is that profile suitable for what you want to do? Are they young and coachable? That's how you can sign a Van Dijk early.

Circumstances should not affect professional judgment of players. If Leiceister had not won the league and were just midtable in 2016, would Kante have gotten his move to a top club? Would he have still been the same player?

Circumstances should not affect judgment.

Imagine Ajax 2018 had not made it out of the group stages and somehow came second in their league, do you think Juventus and Barcelona would have shelled out almost 200 million euros for two of their players?

Why should circumstances dictate the on-pitch value of a player?

I sincerely hoped Arsenal would get Soyuncu back then. Why? Even though he was coming from a weaker league, he was the right profile of what we needed. Who did we sign instead? Experienced Sokratis from Dortmund.

Nuno Mendes now would cost a lot because Sporting won the league.

That's what Liverpool are so good at. They recruit the right profiles with a proven level of impact and game time. That's how they got Andy Robertson and Mohammed Salah. They were willing to wait a year for Van Dijk because of this.

Recruit the right lower level players young.

@ddoublepivot already made it clear in some other thread that the standout gems at top teams in weaker leagues are usually already technically good. All you need to look for is if they have the right physical level to maintain and thrive with that technique in a tougher league.

When scouting at lower levels, focus on profiles (does X player have the right qualities to do what we want in this role in our system?) and physicality (does X player have enough athleticism to not put him at a disadvantage in a faster and stronger league?).

For this reason, Nuno Mendes is the standout teen talent in lower leagues. He is already a dominant technical and physical player at 18 years of age. His quality will no doubt translate with ease in almost any system but especially one where the LB is expected to join the attack.

Ben White should have been a year old signing. Buendia should have been a year old signing. Opportunity windows.

Get them before circumstances (a good performance/trophy win/consistent game time) raises the public understanding of their talent. It's as simple as that.

It should be insane and disgraceful at the highest levels of football not to be able to assess the quality of players without circumstances influencing it.

It's an utter shame to let circumstances dictate your signings. Leiceister are particularly good at avoiding that.

TLDR: Player assessment (or decision-making on signings) at the highest levels of football is disgraceful. How any of the mid EPL clubs let Mattheus Pereira stay where he's at is beyond me. That's how Leiceister climbed up the table. Signing good players quicker than anyone.

Look at Alphonso Davies, a CL-level talent in the Canadian league. If he was 24, I doubt Bayern Munich would have signed him.

When judging potential gems at weaker levels, look at their profiles and physical prowess, that's what is important.

Assess and execute quickly.

European football at the highest levels is essentially a nuclear arms race for talent. Clubs like Arsenal don't have the luxury to ignore physically great young gems at lower levels. Sign them, train them, move them. The ability to execute sales/buys quickly is important and key.

Joe Willock has been physically ready for the EPL since 2018. Nowadays, he shrugs off the likes of Adama and Dias with ease. EPL PnP monsters can't touch him.

A club that thinks he was the right profile for them need never worry about his ability to translate his qualities.

The likes of Southampton, Wolves, Newcastle (or any other club fits his profile) should have sent in a bid since 2018. Now, none of them can barely afford him.

That's what you get for missing opportunity windows. You miss out on serious talents.

Public valuations are crap

When Liverpool wanted Salah, AS Roma would never have realized that he could be a 200 million euro impact star. Liverpool would have been right to have paid 100 million. Like I already said, public valuations are crap. Even in-house club valuations are crap.

Hudson-Odoi would be systematically perfect for Arsenal on the left wing right now. If Odoi was at any other club apart from Chelsea, Arsenal would be right to pay a lot of money for him.

It doesn't matter. What matters is their projected impact in YOUR OWN SYSTEM.

Tapsoba, if he's at Arsenal, will probably have a Maguire-level impact on the defense.

How much is that worth?

Remember Kieran Tierney being sold for the most expensive fee in Scotland's history? Crap valuation for Arsenal.

You think Celtic would sell him for 25M now?

My problem with the Arsenal links are that none of them, apart from Lokonga, Aouar, Brandt and Camavinga are opportunity signings, and even barely at that.

Aouar will probably be the best opportunity signing among the lot. His impact will obviously exceed whatever Arsenal pay.