I had a great call with .@Scholars_Stage about all things Taiwan...defense, politics and of course energy. My biggest questions to Tanner were regarding whether China plans to attack, say in the 10 yr window. Short answer, who knows. Long answer, keep reading...🧵
The problem is the US military didn't really didn't oriented itself towards China as its actual biggest threat until three years ago, having spent the last 20 years or so futzing around the middle east.
We are now on-trajectory to do thing like rebuild our submarine fleet...but these things take time. Rollings out a new generation of bombers take time. Meanwhile, the Chinese has been full steam ahead on figuring out how to deny US access to the South China Sea.
In the short run, war is unlikely. Even in the long run, China would prefer not to fight. But given the precipitous fall in population expected starting 2030 and maturation of US military efforts aimed at countering China around that time, they may feel a window closing.
2025-2030 might be that "hole in the doughnut" where China feels like it's now it never. Would it take that step? A lot of people like to think they can read Xi's mind but Tanner and I both happen to think it's pretty unknowable.
Taiwan can ramp up on military purchases quickly, but what would be hard is upgrading the personnel. Just one aspect in which Taiwan's low taxes leads to underinvestment in critical aspects of nation-building.
Tanner and I agree...Tsai's a scholar at heart who does great things in small group international maneuvers but doesn't get ppl to rally around the flag and often find herself sitting between two stools politically, eg gay marriage.
Tanner is in Washington DC working on a project unconnected in Taiwan but I'm glad he's keeping an interest in the region. How things play out over the next few years with a wounded governing party and deranged opposition will be interesting indeed. 🧵
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