Thread by @DavidHenigUK

I think a little comparison between Gibraltar and Northern Ireland may be in order, because both were widely predicted as Brexit flashpoints, but so far only one of them has been. The reasons, I believe, come down to confidence and leadership more than history. 1/n

Obviously there are similarities and differences between Gibraltar and Northern Ireland. Both have sensitive borders with the EU, but Northern Ireland has the legacy of the troubles while Gibraltar is more singular in views about being British. Even so, enough to compare... 2/

In terms of the Brexit aftermath Gibraltar and Northern Ireland look similar on the surface - checks on goods coming from Great Britain, relatively open borders to the EU. But very different in the acceptance of this - Gibraltar happy, N Ireland not. Why? 3/

Well it isn't because Gibraltar has become less British or more Spanish. But that feels like a key point. Gibraltar's leadership (more on them later) were able to separate British identity from post-Brexit trading relations. This did not happen in Northern Ireland. 4/

The UK government negotiates on behalf of Gibraltar as it does Northern Ireland. But it has always felt that whereas the UK set the objectives for Northern Ireland, Gibraltar set them for Gibraltar. They were more involved. 5/

The Gibraltar government always had the twin objectives of protecting economy and identity, and saw these as separate. I then saw them in action a couple of times negotiating with the UK, rather effectively. We can be British and be open to the EU was the message. 6/

In comparison the UK government never distinguished between the political and economic with regard to Northern Ireland, didn't accept as the Gibraltar government did that they could be treated differently. Didn't make their objectives clear. 7/

Equally, which is where the comparison is weakest, Northern Ireland parties couldn't ever reach a common position as could be seen in Gibraltar, or only the weakest one against the UK government plans. Identities are more difficult ground. 8/

The final point is to be able to carry out the strategy. In Fabian Picardo I believe Gibraltar had the outstanding negotiator on the whole UK side during Brexit. Clear in overall objectives, determined in using each meeting in pursuit, friendly but tough, a communicator. 9/

What I learn, and what I think fine Northern Ireland organisations like CCBS or many but not enough in the political system understand is that they needed a clearer, more agreed cross community objective. Not to leave that to a distant government. Still needed. 10/

On the Gibraltar model, you can be British while still having more checks to arrivals from the UK compared to the EU. It is a confidence that is delivered by leadership, which we simply haven't seen enough from anyone with regard to Northern Ireland. 11/

Finally, if the UK government had wanted to give itself a better chance in EU negotiations it would have done everything to get Picardo to play a leading role. It is no accident that Gibraltar has not become a Brexit flashpoint. London should be learning from that. 12/12

PS Interesting comments in reply. No I don't think amounts of trade or constitutional status are important. Yes I think Northern Ireland as symbolic of the UK government's confusion over trade barriers has meant UK government taking more interest (for the worse).

PPS Learn from Gibraltar that the resolution of issues with regard to Northern Ireland is not about sausage regulations or the nationality of passport checkers, but the extent to which identities and trade rules can be separated.