Thread by @Giangygian7

Dear Swissborg fellow, What metrics you can look at when assessing CHSB ?
Follow this thread - hope it helps @swissborg #weareswissborg #CHSB @alex_fazel @Cyrus_Fazel @CryptonitesTV

as an active member I want to share with you today and in the next couple of weeks few tips that could be helpful when assessing CHSB price and maybe prevent some future pains.
#NFA - Not financial advice

The entire article is based on data from this morning😊 To be successful and reduce risk it is vital you don’t FOMO whenever there is an announcement. Your goal is always to buy the token preferably when it is fairly priced and away from new announcements. How can you do that?

1st metric **Market cap/ Revenue comparison**
We can look Swissborg in terms of Market cap & cashflow.
At the time of writing, the market cap in is almost 642.55$ millions on coinmarketcap.com

A screen from this morning

Unfortunately, MCap value is not correct as we need to deduct the already burned ones.
Therefore as market cap is obtained by multiplying all tokens in circulation (We need to deduct the already burned ones) * current token price

[Current token in circulation ] 993,571,285.7  * 0,6413 [Token price] (for the sake of calculation) that is almost 637.177$. Swissborg has no further debt so to keep things simple we should deduct the present “protect and burn” amount that can be consider as cash available

Hence current market cap is 637.177 -0.717 = 636.5$ million

Now we need to make few assumptions regarding the revenue that will be generated for the next 365 days, so let’s create 3 scenarios and utilize the daily amount that is feeding the “P&B” pot as starting point. We Know that this amount is 20% of revenue so we have to x5

On average for the next 365 days we assume:
1)  Worst case -> 12000 * 5
We are assuming that daily revenue stays on average at 60000$ per day. If we compared it to current data it is 1/2 of it. Assumptions: no further user grow, 50% decline in volume that leads to-> 22 millions

2)      Base case -> 25000 *5
 
We are assuming that daily revenue stays as is 125000$ per day. So we are assuming that current conditions, volume and users remain stables over a year (365 days) timeframe. It means -> 45.6 millions

3)Positive scenario-> 45000 *5
 
We are assuming that daily revenue could increase back to previous peak – that at the best id my knowledge was almost as high as 225000$ per day. So we are assuming over a year (365 days) it means->  82.125 millions

As you can see, I am considering no further developments being release and the best case is simply returning to the peak of previous month.

Next let’s weight those scenarios - The weight process is vital as scenarios could develop throughout the year and we don’t want to be completely unprepared. To be conservative let’s put 40% on 1st and 2nd scenarios and only 20% on 3rd ones

Therefore:

0.4 *22 + 0.4*45.6 +0.2* 82.125 = 43.5 millions
 
If we finally divide market cap/ revenues the ratio is 637.5$ / 43.5 = 14.65!

Final conclusion:
At the time of writing this value is extremely low comparing to peers within the DEFI space (additional resources: bitcoinsuisse.com/research/decry…). Although the article is a bit outdated (Jan 21) you can see what valuation will look like again going forward

Almost 15,signals that Swissborg is high undervalued and thus fairly priced. Remember being cheap is one of the key for reducing your chance of be wrong.
This value is indicating slowing growth – which to be frank seems almost impossible due to the relative youth of the company

Bear in mind it’s only their 4th year of existence.

Swissborg has the advantage to be established also in a well know and safe jurisdiction as Switzerland – that is worldwide recognized for its stability - this aspect will certainly play and important role when newcomers will evaluate their trusted counterparty and jurisdiction

The crypto space is still at the beginning of its early journey, and in the next 2-3 years we can expect exponential growth of users and institutional investors joining.

You can take advantage of this particular moment for defining your final positions as you will never seen this price again. Remember supply in finite whereas demand due to the general industry trend is clearly pointing up.

What would have been your consideration to Jeff Bezos in 1994? Amazon was new, market was still in the initial development phase and building the fundamentals and scaling up took time.

Have a lovely Sunday and be patience!

P.s. if you want to help me, I would be grateful if you could help me to be part of the hall of fame family!
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