If, in Jan 2020, we had known all of these key points, I suspect it would've been clear that a lab leak was plausible:
1. WIV worked with at least 9 closest relatives to SARS2 known at the time, collected from Yunnan mine where people suffered viral severe respiratory disease.
2. WIV did their SARSrCoV live virus work at BSL2, and the animal infection experiments at BSL3.
3. WIV kept bats in the lab and did virus infection experiments with them.
It also would've been good to know:
4. None of hundreds of animal samples from the seafood market tested positive for the virus.
5. No bats (or pangolins) were sold at the seafood market.
Getting questions about evidence for bats inside WIV. WIV filed a bat cage patent in 2018. The design of the cage matches the one shown in the 2017 video taken inside of a lab.
Some are asking how do we know that lab is inside WIV. We don't know for sure.
Also, to correct Stephen, Wuhan is not a place where SARS2-like viruses are known to circulate in bats or spillover into people.
The Wuhan institute of virology existed prior to 2003 SARS. A lab there pivoted to SARS research after the 2003 epidemic, and spent close to 2 decades ferrying 10,000s of potential SARS samples (animal and human) from more than 1000 miles away up into the Wuhan lab.
I want to impress that there is a lot to lose for scientists (esp virologists) to say they think Covid-19 could’ve emerged in connection to research activities.
All at once you’re dealing with your colleagues, institute, reviewers of papers & grants, & the Chinese government.
You’re literally acting against your self interest in every way possible except the interest of not having a future pandemic caused by a research-related accident.
I’ve spoken very highly of sleuths and data analysts who’ve worked on tracing the #OriginsOfCovid
But I also need to emphasize that the consequences for scientists are much worse. You could become a pariah overnight, accused of fanning the flames of conspiracy and AAPI hate.
Because so many experts are deleting their tweets now, people have had no choice but to look at archived pages to see what they said just over a year ago:
Calisher, CSU virologist & lone signatory to completely change his position, told @ABC he now believes "there is too much coincidence" to ignore the lab-leak theory & "it is more likely that it came out of that lab."
H/t @TheSeeker268 abcnews.go.com/US/nature-base…
For more context, Calisher was the unfortunate first author of @TheLancet letter which ordered its signatories alphabetically.
Peter Daszak with ties to the WIV was the drafter of the letter who even considered taking his name off said letter.
I’m starting a 24h poll to check the public understanding of gain-of-function research.
What will follow is a series of experiment scenarios. Participants are invited to pick: Yes, No, I don’t know.
Please don’t Google to find answers. Answer based on your understanding.
First one should be easy.
Is this gain-of-function?
Serially (consecutively, repeatedly) passaging a virus through cells or animals (infecting these with the virus) to intentionally derive a more infectious or lethal virus.
Second one:
Is this gain-of-function?
Serially passaging a novel virus from nature in cells to find a version that can be grown and studied in the laboratory.