Because so many experts are deleting their tweets now, people have had no choice but to look at archived pages to see what they said just over a year ago:
The tweet is degraded as a Trumpian conspiracy theory:
Kristian is called in to take a look and see whether the Covid-19 virus could have possibly leaked from a lab, and he quickly replies on Jan 31, 2020 that the "analyses are completely flawed and wrong. They can safely be ignored."
But later that same day, in FOIA'ed emails from Fauci, we see that Kristian says that he, Ed Holmes, Bob Garry and Mike "all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory."
Regardless of what Kristian says after that email - what new info changed his mind - we see here that he had dismissed the lab origin hypothesis and then afterwards said that his group of experts thought the virus genome was unnatural in the SAME DAY.
I want to emphasize that this is by no means the fault of the infectious diseases expert who tagged Kristian to get his opinion. She trusted him to assess the lab leak claim. He said it was completely flawed and wrong.
Fast forward to earlier this month, Kristian doesn't just deactivate his account. He first tried to delete his tweets. Going so far as to first try and excuse that his old tweets auto-delete.
And it wasn't that all of his old tweets had deleted, because several users tried looking up Kristian's tweets prior to late 2019 and these still existed on twitter.
Kristian then tells @nytimes "I have always seen Twitter as a way to interact with other scientists and the general public to encourage open and transparent dialogue about science."
I'm sorry but none of the above has been encouraging open and transparent dialogue about science.
What we do know is that there was a private call on Feb 1, 2020.
The participants included 3 of the 5 authors of the Proximal Origin correspondence. One recently told TWiV that their first draft was done on Feb 1, 2020.
This meeting was apparently so juicy that the emails following the meeting, spanning several pages of the FOIA'ed emails, are heavily redacted.
What's the point of this?
The meeting participants also included Ron Fouchier, the senior author of one of -the- gain of function papers: sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/e…
We may never know what Fouchier's notes on the teleconference were...
And on March 6, 2020, Kristian writes to Farrar, Fauci, and Collins saying that Proximal Origin has just been accepted @NatureMedicine
"Thank you again for your advice and leadership as we have been working through the SARS-CoV-2 'origins' paper."
I'm getting some helpful corrections: (1) The analysis Kristian was referring to was not actually @SenTomCotton's but this other one in the same thread. Difficult to tell when I jump between deleted tweets in the same thread on the Wayback Machine.
(3) Some people are arguing that Bob Garry must've misspoke on TWiV. That the first draft Proximal Origin being completed on Feb 1 must've been an error.
Can anyone who's in touch with Garry ask him to confirm or correct?
I understand why many scientists are afraid to voice their doubts on #originsofcovid
Even when you think it could've leaked from a lab, you're faced with an arena of people yelling about bioweapons, manmade SARS etc.
But the response shouldn't be to say "must've been natural."
If you pull the pendulum too far to one side, you have to expect a reaction of near equal force.
Sometimes the best thing to do is acknowledge when people you hate have a good point. And work on investigating those points together.
Another mistake: the meeting included 4 of the 5 Proximal Origin authors.
Besides Fouchier who had engaged in the influenza gain-of-function studies, another scientist from the same institute in the Netherlands attended this call: Marion Koopmans, who is one of the international experts on the China-WHO joint study.
Together, Fouchier and Koopmans are deputy and head of the Erasmus MC Department of Viroscience.
I do not think that it would be a stretch to say that some of the people who would’ve had the most to lose if Covid-19 were to be connected to gain-of-function research were in attendance at this Feb 1, 2020 call, for which the post-meeting emails were largely redacted.
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Also, to correct Stephen, Wuhan is not a place where SARS2-like viruses are known to circulate in bats or spillover into people.
The Wuhan institute of virology existed prior to 2003 SARS. A lab there pivoted to SARS research after the 2003 epidemic, and spent close to 2 decades ferrying 10,000s of potential SARS samples (animal and human) from more than 1000 miles away up into the Wuhan lab.
I want to impress that there is a lot to lose for scientists (esp virologists) to say they think Covid-19 could’ve emerged in connection to research activities.
All at once you’re dealing with your colleagues, institute, reviewers of papers & grants, & the Chinese government.
You’re literally acting against your self interest in every way possible except the interest of not having a future pandemic caused by a research-related accident.
I’ve spoken very highly of sleuths and data analysts who’ve worked on tracing the #OriginsOfCovid
But I also need to emphasize that the consequences for scientists are much worse. You could become a pariah overnight, accused of fanning the flames of conspiracy and AAPI hate.
Calisher, CSU virologist & lone signatory to completely change his position, told @ABC he now believes "there is too much coincidence" to ignore the lab-leak theory & "it is more likely that it came out of that lab."
H/t @TheSeeker268 abcnews.go.com/US/nature-base…
For more context, Calisher was the unfortunate first author of @TheLancet letter which ordered its signatories alphabetically.
Peter Daszak with ties to the WIV was the drafter of the letter who even considered taking his name off said letter.
If, in Jan 2020, we had known all of these key points, I suspect it would've been clear that a lab leak was plausible:
1. WIV worked with at least 9 closest relatives to SARS2 known at the time, collected from Yunnan mine where people suffered viral severe respiratory disease.
2. WIV did their SARSrCoV live virus work at BSL2, and the animal infection experiments at BSL3.
3. WIV kept bats in the lab and did virus infection experiments with them.
I’m starting a 24h poll to check the public understanding of gain-of-function research.
What will follow is a series of experiment scenarios. Participants are invited to pick: Yes, No, I don’t know.
Please don’t Google to find answers. Answer based on your understanding.
First one should be easy.
Is this gain-of-function?
Serially (consecutively, repeatedly) passaging a virus through cells or animals (infecting these with the virus) to intentionally derive a more infectious or lethal virus.
Second one:
Is this gain-of-function?
Serially passaging a novel virus from nature in cells to find a version that can be grown and studied in the laboratory.