Ammonia is set to become World’s another renewable fuel. Sounds interesting? Thread.
Renewable fuels & energy storage solutions are the buzzing trends of the world. Increase in Solar & Wind energy harvesting efficiency have changed all the energy dynamics.
This is disrupting many traditional businesses and impacting human life positively. Technology is accelerating & facing the change is life.
An ammonia molecule is composed of one nitrogen atom and three hydrogen atoms & mostly was used in making urea fertilizer.
With the emerging new application of ammonia as a green fuel, there is a possibility of World facing ammonia crunch and hence can give pricing power to the manufacturers. 180 Million tons of ammonia is made annually, 40% of plants are old. China is the largest producer.
Ammonia can be burned in internal combustion engines with minor modifications emitting only nitrogen and water vapor. Most of the world’s ammonia is made using Haber–Bosch process, a century-old process that emits vast amounts of carbon dioxide.
Green process for ammonia manufacturing on large scale seems a short distant dream by using Solar energy, making it a complete renewable fuel. This is still expensive than traditional way, but it's cheaper against using Crude oil.
Big investments are already happening for using ammonia as a marine fuel to run ships.
Companies in South Korea, Italy and USA have successfully demonstrated usage of ammonia to run cars
Ammonia has certain advantages over hydrogen as a fuel like it has higher energy density than liquid hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen has to be stored at cryogenic conditions of –253 °C, whereas ammonia can be stored at a much less energy intensive –33 °C.
And ammonia, though hazardous to handle, is much less flammable than hydrogen. It has 10 times higher energy density than Li-ion batteries.
Ammonia is being used in making urea fertilizer globally for a century, a vast ammonia infrastructure already exists.
Worldwide, some 180 million tons of ammonia is produced annually, and 100s of ports are equipped with ammonia terminals.
Saudi Arabia is investing $5 billion in ammonia project at Red Sea coast using solar & wind to generate 4 GW of electricity for water electrolysis plants. The hydrogen will be fed into a traditional Haber-Bosch plant to produce 1.2 million ton per year of ammonia.
This is another interesting development which aims to repurpose coal-fired thermal plants with ammonia. This will give some more lifeline to outdated thermal power technology and help maintaining their valuations reuters.com/business/energ…
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Great news from #Lupin for Phase 3 data on #Solosec for Trichomoniasis. Its supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA). Solosec is currently approved by the FDA to treat bacterial vaginosis (BV) in adult women, so no safety concerns. FDA would look for good efficacy data (1)
Firstly, no new antibiotics are discovered. Humans are under a continuous threat against microbes. Solesec is developed by Symbiomix Therapeutics, Lupin bought it in 2017 for $150M
In the trial, 92% of patients achieved the primary endpoint versus 1.5% in the placebo group (2)
The cure rate was 95%(56/59) for Solosec versus 1.7% (1/60) for placebo. Well-tolerated, no serious adverse events were observed in the trial.
If approved, can get 10-year exclusivity. This is big. Most of the topline goes to the bottom line in patented drugs (3)
Few API players showed a sudden jump in profit margins in the gone quarter. I am trying to connect the dots by comparing COVID affected the first half of 2020 with 2018 when China was cracking down pollution from end of 2017. This has led to similar supply chain disruption
(1)
during 2018 in polluting chemical industries. The companies like Sadhana nitrochem, HEG/GI, Mangalam/Kanchi were the few to name Indian players who got benefited. See the share price of these companies after the end of 2017. The situation changed and afterward supply chain
(2)
became normal & stock prices have gone down.
Coming to 2020, the Wuhan region in China which is a chemical production zone was affected due to COVID from mid-January. 70% Indian API & raw material comes from China, and switching on-off is not that quick in the
(3)
Sales Growth 3 years CAGR 40%,
Profit Growth 3 years CAGR 56% but
Stock price 3 years CAGR -14%!
Do you see value?
Because 10 Year Stock CAGR is 67%.
The company has grown from 15 Cr Mcap in 2010 to 3500 Cr today with negligible debt.
Always expanding through internal accruals. Negligible debt between 2011-15 and debt-free from 2015.
This is a well-known multi-bagger of last pharma bull run till 2015.
So let's focus on what has changed in the last 5 years when stock corrected to half from peak. (2)
Key transformations in last 5 years:
1. Entered regulated market in 2018 (US, UK, EU) 2. Shift from generic to branded generic (25% revenue currently) 3. Entered high margin injectable & Ophthalmic segment 4. 400 Cr Capex to serve US business through internal accruals (3)
Companies present in the API+Formulation+Branded drug segment fetch high margins. They are called vertically integrated.
Companies operating in the only formulation segment are currently at risk of raw material/API supply from China.
India has a strong presence in the API+Formulation+Generic segment but dependant on China for raw material.
Outsourcing happens from top to bottom. Branded drugs are still manufactured mostly in developed countries.
Generic drugs are thin margin high volume business
Companies operating in the bottom of the pyramid don't have bargain power, hence never get rich valuations. While companies at the middle-top part of the pyramid often secure inventions through patent protections, hence they get a power to wipe out competitors
What a fantastic company & Mgmt. Growing without taking debt, Stock 10 yr CAGR 46%, No equity dilution for a decade. Uninterrupted dividend-paying since 1952, 1300 Acre integrated manufacturing campus. Serves diverse products/sector/geographies/customers (1/1)
Broadly presence in Dye, Agrochemicals, Pharma API intermediates, Polymer, Fragrance, Bulk & specialty chemicals. World leader in date Palm tissue culture plants.
Agrochemicals: 3 fungicides, 10 herbicides, 1 insecticide, and their intermediates (2/2)
Pharma segment: Through subsidiary Atul Biosciences
World’s largest manufacturers of Dapsone, an API with USFDA approval
➤ API intermediates (21 products)
➤ Peptide API intermediates (10 products)
➤ Phosgene based bulk chemicals (34 products)
(3/3)
Really complex APIs, formulations, branded segments, home diagnostics and whatnot. If growth in API happens, should cross all-time high. The stock corrected 30% even after the best Nos. Debt-free. repaid the debt of 100 Cr in last 5 yrs
Invested by looking at the complexity of API they make, believe me, I am a chemist.
Few silent features: 80% US market share in Loratidine API that's amazing. Other APIs doing well are Montelukast, Atorvastatin, Rosuvastatin, all complex.
3 Diabetic APIs under development. API Sales Revenue during the year 2020-21 grew by 14.74 percent at Rs. 473.95 crores with an impressive growth of 28 percent in Domestic and 10 percent in Exports.