With the Delta variant, we'll likely need ~90% vaccinated to get to herd immunity.
It's possible we'll get close to this, 89% of Canadians want to get vaccinated. This is out of the question in most of Europe and the US, where vaccine skepticism is much higher. Vaccine checks on arrival for travelers will be needed
Certain provinces will probably never get to herd immunity:
And it reflects a long running and unfortunate trend towards polarization.
There's hope that we can smash down community transmission of of the virus entirely, buy us more time to assess the issue, get booster shots, as Israel has nearly done with vaccination and border controls:
This is likely the truth. We need to make sure we do everything to go for zero, ensure workplaces and schools are safe and that we can handle periodic flare ups as new variants arise.

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More from @KashPrime

8 Jun
It’s been a hard day for members of my family and broader community, seeing 3 generations of a whole family wiped out... who look very much like us, and did everything right. They were highly educated, loved this country, worked hard, the Canadian dream in every respect...
My family has been here 51 years, my father came in 1970 (after a harrowing stopover in Moscow, a story for another day) to join his siblings building a life here. He came to a young country full of promise, but blighted by attacks against South Asians.
ftp.issuu.com/uw_imprint/doc…
He and representatives of the community met with the editorial board of a tabloid newspaper in the 70s to get them to stop pushing race-baiting stories targeting the South Asian community. The response: 'We will print whatever sells newspapers.' Thankfully things are better now
Read 16 tweets
2 Jun
We've created this guide on how to protect yourself from an airborne virus using HEPA filters in offices and schools. A simple solution that needs to be used especially in the fall/winter when opening windows and doors will be less practical:
docs.google.com/document/d/17t…
CO2 monitors are an important component to this, and can roughly tell you how much of the air is fresh in a given room. Higher than 700 is risky, and the higher the number, the more you get 'rebreathed' air from another person possibly containing infectious virus.
The goal is to get to 6 ACH (air changes an hour), which is the minimum in most hospital settings. We describe how to calculate this, and what types of filters you should be buying.
Read 7 tweets
6 May
Data from @GovCanHealth which was obtained by @kellygrant1 at @globeandmail with some astonishing stats on effectiveness of the vaccines, even after a single dose. The calculations behind these numbers are here:
This matches roughly with similar stats published by Ontario Public Health. You can download it here: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…
Also discussed here:
Much discussion about the new study from Qatar showing the second dose is more effective, but our situations are not comparable. They stuck to the 3w schedule, so could not study how immunity evolves after more time.
cp24.com/news/early-eff…
Read 7 tweets
6 May
Feeling great today on my ER shift:
- hardly any new critically ill COVID cases
- almost every patient I’ve seen is vaccinated with at least one shot

And the good news keeps coming:
It looks like vaccines will work for all of the variants of concern:
By Sept-Oct almost every child will have access to them as well:
Read 7 tweets
27 Apr
Nova Scotia is giving everyone a masterclass on how to crush an outbreak. With a test positive rate of just 1% they are
- closing schools, non-essential businesses
- limiting essential retail to 25% capacity
- rapid testing 2% of the population daily - a huge undertaking
They long ago limited entry into the province, non resident visitors are being turned back at the border and airport. A far cry from the tepid restrictions at the national border.
cbc.ca/news/canada/no…
Their premier even posts his itinerary everyday! You can just tell every minute is being spent making things safer for his people. A very sharp contrast to the rest of the country.
Read 7 tweets
26 Apr
Yet another missed opportunity in this pandemic. A drug developed in Canada, and is used all over the US... only to languish on shelves here. Used early enough it can spare many from severe Covid-19. Many of my patients here could have benefited...
Early trials with just the single antibody showed a tepid response, but combined with etesevimab, both together showed really promising results with no real downside to the patient. 70% reduction in hospitalization and death.
investor.lilly.com/news-releases/…
This represents multiple failures

1) Gatekeeping by our public health and infectious disease experts who are far too conservative and refuse to consider a novel treatment at a critical time, and used the initial issues with the single drug to write off the entire drug category
Read 6 tweets

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