2/ over the last 18 months, bitcoin has been increasingly financialized as an asset
our weekly digital asset fund flows report shows AUM in crypto products is nearly $50B, a sharp increase from $5B a year ago when PTJ first talked about bitcoin 😎
3/ behavioral analysis of bitcoin holders also shows that investors holding bitcoin longer than a year has risen from ~30% in 2012 to ~55% today
in 2020 alone, ~22% of all bitcoin in existence were moved off exchanges (presumably into LT custody + ETPs)
4/ bitcoin sits in a unique place in the economic cycle, and while bitcoin may have emerged in the last economic crisis, we have yet to gather enough data to understand the relationship between bitcoin and inflation, as well as bitcoin and broader macro-economic cycles
5/ if we place bitcoin in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, it outperforms other portfolio diversifiers like gold, real estate, and other common alternative investments
bitcoin has an asymmetric return profile, with annualized returns 2x that of alternatives w similar downside risk
6/ even if bitcoin was added to a portfolio at the peak in late 2017, it would still enhance portfolio returns with a significantly better sharpe ratio than other alternatives
7/ the most significant improvements in Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return) are seen with allocations of up to 10% bitcoin in the portfolio
this highlights how a small allocation can make a dramatic difference in portfolio performance
8/ in the report, we also highlight the reduced risk from quarterly rebalancing to maintain portfolio weights, and touch on broader macro correlation
for those who are interested, i highly recommend our research portal - coinshares.com/research - lots of great content!
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1/ quick notes and data points from the discussion @kellyjgreer and i had at @PubKey_NYC last night
'tis the season of the most hated rally - bitcoin is ripping and macro folks are not happy about it
jamie dimon and elizabeth warren seem especially mad 😠 max cope incoming
2/ bitcoin pricing is driven by FLOWS
it's tempting to get lost in piles of analysis but as we'll discuss later on, the key to understanding is looking at open positions, trade volume, inflows and outflows
sentiment doesn't matter until it's expressed as a trade
3/ bitcoin is highly reflexive
i had a moment of enlightenment a few years back. i used to believe narrative -> sentiment -> flows -> price but it's really much simpler
price drives action
this is what @saylor $MSTR has perfected. buy, price goes up, follow with narrative
1/ a short summary of a recent talk on silicon, satoshis, and superpowers
power in our world is changing. a decade ago, oil and gas companies and banks ruled markets. now it's tech companies and financialization runs rampant (>100x P/E ratios etc)
2/ as our lives become increasingly digitized, value creation is happening on a new frontier, and a handful of industries and companies are well positioned to capitalize on this shift
3/ this is also impacting the geopolitical landscape. we live in a multipolar world, and power has historically been dependent on the ability of a nation to secure access to natural resources, namely oil
1/ thanks to @farokh and the @RugRadio community for having me on the show today! i enjoyed discussing NFT market structure and why i don't care for utility or roadmaps with my JPEGs 🙅♀️
2/ blog post on NFT market microstructure and how it may evolve over time - don't worry, u will be able to explain market microstructure if u just skim it lightly
bonus: you can collect the post as an NFT if you are so inclined, thanks to @viamirror