1/4 Latest modelling from Sage is out. Key points:
➡️Relaxation on 21 June threatens a large resurgence in infections and admissions
➡️In all scenarios, even a short delay results in a drop in hospitalisations and deaths
➡️4wk delay cuts peak in admissions by 33-50%
➡️Relaxation on 21 June threatens a large resurgence in infections and admissions
➡️In all scenarios, even a short delay results in a drop in hospitalisations and deaths
➡️4wk delay cuts peak in admissions by 33-50%
2/ Looking at Warwick, there's a focus on vax effectiveness against Delta. Like transmission, it makes a big difference. Default assumptions take us close to 1st peak, pessimistic ones well over it... 
3/ Here is the impact of delaying Step 4 by different periods. Moving back 4 wks (yellow line) takes us below 1st wave peak for all vax effectiveness scenarios
4/ Some will say this a cautious approach. But keep in mind the number of hospitalisations and deaths we are talking about is NOT low. This summary table is from the London School. Going back to Step 2 is the only way you cut deaths dramatically...
5/ And here are the conclusions drawn by Imperial. Note how sensitive those deaths counts are to small changes in the assumptions used...
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