Justin McElroy Profile picture
Jun 15, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Just 277 new cases of #COVID19 in B.C. over the last three days — with two of those days under 100 cases for the first time since October 1.

Active cases at 1537, lowest since October 16.

Hospitalizations down 16% in three days.

Today's chart. Image
There are so many good takeaways from today's numbers, the most I can recall for months and months, that I now regret taking the day off, because I continue to learn the wrong work life balance lessons time and time again.

But let's go through some of them.
An average of 51,589 people in B.C. received a vaccine shot in each of the last three days.

That's the highest number yet on a weekend.

We're now at 75.9% of all adults with one dose — the drive to 80% still in reach. ImageImage
(80% is a round number, and an arbitrary one, and while the value of such things is limited, getting 4 of 5 British Columbians with two doses by the summer will be a tremendous help, based on everything we know about the virus)
The predictable chart is levelling off now — but we're still seeing downward progress, which is good and important.

Modelling suggests rise in cases could come — but because the sample size of countries with the vaccine update of B.C. is so small, a lot of good still possible. Image
An underrated part of today's good news?

For the first time since the 2nd wave, the rolling average of daily #COVID19 deaths in B.C. is under two. Image
Hospitalizations? Now falling very fast, down 50% in two weeks.

The regional breakdown? We're approaching single digits a day for Vancouver Coastal Health, and now there for Northern and Island Health.

Testing rate? Now at 2.6%.

This is all very good! ImageImage
And again, what does it look like when a place gets to 80% of adults with one dose, primarily using the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine?

We really only have one comparable: Israel.

And they've been stable at around 15 cases/day for a few weeks.
There are still lots of unknowns, but what we're seeing in B.C. is the vaccine uptake and virus suppression necessary for people to have many, many weeks of a summer where they can breathe a little easier.

Keep making smart choices. Image

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More from @j_mcelroy

Oct 15, 2022
"Justin, once the election is over, what will you be doing?"

me: here is a pyramid of beer from the seven key municipalities we will be focusing on tonight
7. KELOWNA

It's a rematch of the 2018 election where Colin Basran won big — can he do so again in an environment where crime and growth concerns are greater than four years ago?

there were no kelowna beers in the bcl so we're going with a more geographically appropriate cider
6. LANGLEY TOWNSHIP

Can Rich Coleman make a return to politics, will controversial councillor Eric Woodward and his new party dominate — or will one of the other two plausible contenders sweet up the middle?

A 9% imperial sour is bold but by night's end you might need it
Read 9 tweets
Aug 20, 2022
it's a beautiful saturday in august

the pne has begun

it's a little cooler than the last few days

really the ideal time to enjoy the last good stretch of summer

who is ready for some charts
The rolling average of #COVID19 wastewater measurements fell in ALL FIVE Metro Vancouver treatment plants last week.

It's now about half what it was at the height of this wave.
Total hospitalizations were down about 10% in the last week, the biggest dip in more than two months, as we start to see the effects of this wave subsiding
Read 9 tweets
Aug 6, 2022
Vancouver's centre-right Non-Partisan Association has been one of the city's top two parties in 58 of its last 59 elections.

In 2018 they won the most council seats & came within 1000 votes of being elected mayor.

And then what happened?
First there was a battle for control of the board that seemed to get pretty nasty.

thebreaker.news/business/npa-t…
Among the people elected to the board were a former Rebel Media personality, and people who ran for less successful right-wing parties in the prior election.

vancouversun.com/news/local-new…
Read 18 tweets
Aug 5, 2022
who is ready for some charts
Four of Metro Vancouver's five wastewater treatment sites have seen a marked decline in #COVID19 concentration in the last three weeks, suggesting the third Omicron wave has peaked.

Outside of Langley, numbers are back to where they were in early June.
If we zoom into the last two months, we can more clearly see the slow but meaningful decline in the four sites, along with how much Northwest Langley is being an outlier at this point
Read 8 tweets
Aug 3, 2022
Today in "governments being accountable for the billion dollar organizations they oversee", a quick recap of hoping to speak to someone about the departure of BC Housing's CEO
Shayne Ramsay announced today he would be leaving BC Housing after two decades leading the organization.

It's a big, complex job, and has become bigger and more complex as time as gone on.

For a very basic metric of this, here's a chart. Image
BC Housing said Ramsay wouldn't be speaking on his departure today, or answer questions about his stated reasons for leaving.

When you go to BC Housing's media page, you're directed to phone a number that is no longer in service.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 26, 2022
Last weekend I went to the weirdest ghost town in Canada, a time machine to 1981, hundreds of kilometres from any major city.

Here's what it was like in Kitsault, British Columbia.

justinmcelroy.com/2022/07/26/vis…
RANKING THE SPOOKIEST PARTS OF CANADA'S ONLY FULLY PRESERVED 1981 GHOST TOWN

14. GYM

- great raised stage
- yes that's original gym equipment, this will only get weirder
- literally dozens of chairs stored for the school assemblies that will never happen
13. PLAYGROUNDS

- there are four of them, all overtaken by nature to various extents
- very solid wooden structures, two of which are quite interesting
- you're darn right i went down the slides
Read 19 tweets

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