one of the reasons why i was drawn to crypto is because it was (and still largely is) a very overlooked strategy for wealth accumulation that i had assessed to have "generational once in a lifetime" opportunities because of the extremely broken risk/reward skew
in a similar train of thought
one of the reasons why i play the markets the way i do with stables and long-only crypto (i rarely short) is because i think its the best r/r strategy for wealth accumulation, especially if you live probabilistically and are playing across time
why do i say "probabilistically"?
because "no one knows what will happen", but if you're experienced and in deep enough, you have significantly better odds of "guessing" how things pan out
you want to be able to profit in any of the most likely outcomes and ignore the rest
even if the current "true" path of the future is divergent from your current path
YOU CAN ALWAYS CHANGE YOUR PATH
which is why you need to constantly know where you are heading, and where the rest of the world is heading
you cant change the wind, but you can adjust your sails
the odds that your 1 strategy is the best strategy ever and requires no calibrations or considerations to external factors is laughably retarded af
and imo, it is also borderline malicious if you extol it to others without considerations of their circumstances and abilities
what do i mean by "playing across time"
like in chess, most people play in series - 1 move, evaluate, next move. basically IFTTT if this then that
but you would actually want to be setting yourself up several moves in advance - losing a piece now is actually strategically fine
simplified, the primary objective (for me) is to own a fuck ton (yes, even more) of coins (yes, not USD), and therefore you advance forward
but by advancing on fronts tactically, it doesn't matter if you lose certain battles if it simply just sets you up to win the entire war
a lot of people are playing the "make it, then fk off and retire" game, and there's nothing wrong with that dream
personally, i just want to own as many coins as i can - for fun
i have always viewed crypto as a 24/7 365 money MMORPG - it's immensely fun if you don't suck at it
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
if youre truly rich, you can do whatever you want, even if its expensive
for many people, saving a couple hundred thousand every year for a couple years in their early adulthood is worth a lot (time value of money) and buys them plenty of time with family / friends in the future
find a property 5-10 years ago in your city of choice and simulate buying it and renting it out, dont forget financing cost and taxes
compare that to SPY, and remember, you do nothing for your SPY returns, returns just drops from the sky
regarding EMs
i think there's a systemic reason why they will perpetually underperform
the only positive outcome i can imagine is the domestic population getting richer and expressing home country bias and bidding up their own ponzis, more so than americans can do for theirs
watched a youtube video yesterday in which a guy rated investors based on
1. returns, of course
and 2. scalability of strategy
as i make more money, i start to realize the 2nd part is pretty important
ive simplified things on the tardfi side of things that i only employ 2 simple strategies, each with infinite scalability:
- S&P500 ETFs (for risk on)
- t-bills (for risk off)
on the crypto side, the closet equivalents in terms of scalability are BTC and ETH for risk on
for risk off, its not apparent to me that the risk premia of stables is worth the multi layered 3rd party risks and i think its not a loss to collapse it backwards to tardfi as t-bills
i hate the concept of passive investing, especially passive income
nothing about investing is passive
even choosing which passive index to follow and how much to allocate, is still an active choice
"passive" just simplifies and compresses the operational processes at the tip
however, this does not mean that indexing is bad; i think it's superior
for normal people with access to normal products and cant suck the dick of some star fund manager for allocation: index
the active outperformance (if there even is any) is almost never justified by the fees
you dont actually NEED to be invested in an exclusive accredited investor only hedge fund so that you can have non-beta no drawdowns uponly portfolio returns
you could just simply accept that volatility is normal and be okay with it
imo (could be wrong) the self custody aspect of PMs is hugely overrated
the odds that the world collapses and reverts to a barter system based on precious metals is insanely retarded and thats just doomer prepper hardcore fantasy porn
it is decent for money laundering i suppose
how unallocated precious metals work is that you just buy fractional amounts eg. 10g or 1/4 an oz
like securities, you get brokerage + custody (not complicated)
after accumulating above certain values, you *could* convert it to have claim to actual pieces, and pay for delivery